相关论文: When and How to Lift the Lockdown? Global COVID-19…

The rapid spread of the Coronavirus SARS-2 is a major challenge that led almost all governments worldwide to take drastic measures to respond to the tragedy. Chief among those measures is the massive lockdown of entire countries and cities,…

We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…

To reduce the impact of COVID-19 pandemic most countries have implemented several counter-measures to control the virus spread including school and border closing, shutting down public transport and workplace and restrictions on gathering.…

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…

Currently, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a big threat to global health. The rapid spread of the virus has created pandemic, and countries all over the world are struggling with a surge in COVID-19 infected cases. There are no…

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic radically impacts our lives, while the transmission/infection and recovery dynamics of COVID-19 remain obscure. A time-dependent Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model…

Decision making in the face of a disaster requires the consideration of several complex factors. In such cases, Bayesian multi-criteria decision analysis provides a framework for decision making. In this paper, we present how to construct a…

While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop and adopt mathematical-statistical models of the pandemic for policy and planning purposes. To this end, this work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model…

Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…

We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways. The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of…

As the COVID19 spreads across the world, prevention measures are becoming the essential weapons to combat the pandemic in the period of crisis. The lockdown measure is the most controversial one as it imposes an overwhelming impact on our…

COVID-19 has led to excess deaths around the world, however it remains unclear how the mortality of other causes of death has changed during the pandemic. Aiming at understanding the wider impact of COVID-19 on other death causes, we study…

Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be…

We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…

We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…