相关论文: Inference for nonstationary time series of counts …

We consider here together the inference questions and the change-point problem in Poisson autoregressions (see Tj{\o}stheim, 2012). The conditional mean (or intensity) of the process is involved as a non-linear function of it past values…

We consider together the retrospective and the sequential change-point detection in a general class of integer-valued time series. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter $\theta^*$ which may change over time. We propose…

This paper studies theory and inference related to a class of time series models that incorporates nonlinear dynamics. It is assumed that the observations follow a one-parameter exponential family of distributions given an accompanying…

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

In this paper we consider the problem of detecting a change in the parameters of an autoregressive process, where the moments of the innovation process do not necessarily exist. An empirical likelihood ratio test for the existence of a…

We propose a new model for nonstationary integer-valued time series which is particularly suitable for data with a strong trend. In contrast to popular Poisson-INGARCH models, but in line with classical GARCH models, we propose to pick the…

This article considers a nonparametric method for detecting change points in non-stationary time series. The proposed method will divide the time series into several segments so that between two adjacent segments, the normalized spectral…

In this paper, we consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series, which the true conditional distribution of the observations is assumed to be unknown. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter…

This paper studies theory and inference of an observation-driven model for time series of counts. It is assumed that the observations follow a Poisson distribution conditioned on an accompanying intensity process, which is equipped with a…

This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…

We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…

Change-point detection and locally stationary time series modeling are two major approaches for the analysis of non-stationary data. The former aims to identify stationary phases by detecting abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series…

This article studies estimation of a stationary autocovariance structure in the presence of an unknown number of mean shifts. Here, a Yule-Walker moment estimator for the autoregressive parameters in a dependent time series contaminated by…

A validated simulation model primarily requires performing an appropriate input analysis mainly by determining the behavior of real-world processes using probability distributions. In many practical cases, probability distributions of the…

The aim of sequential change-point detection is to issue an alarm when it is thought that certain probabilistic properties of the monitored observations have changed. This work is concerned with nonparametric, closed-end testing procedures…

Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null…

We develop a new methodology for the fitting of nonstationary time series that exhibit nonlinearity, asymmetry, local persistence and changes in location scale and shape of the underlying distribution. In order to achieve this goal, we…

When analysing time series an important issue is to decide whether the time series is stationary or a random walk. Relaxing these notions, we consider the problem to decide in favor of the I(0)- or I(1)-property. Fixed-sample statistical…

A validated simulation model primarily requires performing an appropriate input analysis mainly by determining the behavior of real-world processes using probability distributions. In many practical cases, probability distributions of the…