相关论文: Mobility Based SIR Model For Pandemics -- With Cas…

We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…

The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the…

It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great catastrophe that upended human lives and caused millions of deaths all over the world. The rapid spread of the virus, with its early-stage exponential growth and subsequent 'waves', caught many medical…

A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…

In the context of natural disasters, human responses inevitably intertwine with natural factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant stress factor, has brought to light profound variations among different countries in terms of their…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…

Pandemic(epidemic) modeling, aiming at disease spreading analysis, has always been a popular research topic especially following the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019. Some representative models including SIR-based deep learning prediction…

The present article studies the extension of two deterministic models for describing the novel coronavirus pandemic crisis, the SIR model and the SEIR model. The models were studied and compared to real data in order to support the validity…

This work is a trial in which we propose SIR model and machine learning tools to analyze the coronavirus pandemic in the real world. Based on the public data from \cite{datahub}, we estimate main key pandemic parameters and make predictions…

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

In this note, we describe simple generalizations of the basic SIR model for epidemic, in case of a multi-region scenario, to be used for predicting the COVID-19 epidemic spread in Italy.

The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…

In this work, we discuss the SIR epidemiological model and different variations of it applied to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemia; we employ the data of the state of Guanajuato and of Mexico. We present some considerations that can…

A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus has spread worldwide, affecting Argentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in Buenos Aires and neighbouring cities. The model parameters are calibrated using the number of…

COVID-19 pandemic has been raging all around the world for almost a year now, as of November 1, 2020. In this paper, we try to analyze the variation of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries in the light of some modifications to the…