相关论文: Modelling death rates due to COVID-19: A Bayesian …

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disturbance to human life. An important reason behind the widespread social anxiety is the huge uncertainty about the pandemic. A fundamental uncertainty is how many or what percentage of people have…

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…

The crisis caused by COVID-19 revealed the global unpreparedness to handle the impact of a pandemic. In this paper, we present a statistical analysis of the data related to the COVID-19 outbreak in China, specifically the infection speed,…

The unprecedented global crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked numerous efforts to create predictive models for the detection and prognostication of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the goal of helping health systems allocate…

The first cases of COVID-19 in France were detected on January 24, 2020. The number of screening tests carried out and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the real number of cases and…

During the COVID-19 outbreak, it is essential to monitor the effectiveness of measures taken by governments on the course of the epidemic. Here we show that there is already a sufficient amount of data collected in Italy to predict the…

The analysis of complex longitudinal data such as COVID-19 deaths is challenging due to several inherent features: (i) Similarly-shaped profiles with different decay patterns; (ii) Unexplained variation among repeated measurements within…

The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China:…

The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…

The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political…

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…

Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…

When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has led many countries to impose unprecedented lockdown measures in order to slow down the outbreak. Questions on whether governments have acted promptly enough, and whether lockdown…

We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend…

In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via…

The 2019-Novel-Coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 116 countries (By March 12) and out of more than 118,000 confirmed cases. Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which affected on a daily basis and…

In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…

A key challenge in estimating the infection fatality rate (IFR) -- and its relation with various factors of interest -- is determining the total number of cases. The total number of cases is not known because not everyone is tested, but…