相关论文: Excess deaths and Hurricane Mar\'ia
Unintended pregnancy and abortion estimates are needed to inform and motivate investment in global health programmes and policies. Variability in the availability and reliability of data poses challenges for producing estimates. We…
The number of recurrent events before a terminating event is often of interest. For instance, death terminates an individual's process of rehospitalizations and the number of rehospitalizations is an important indicator of economic cost. We…
The drug overdose crisis in the United States continues to intensify. Fatalities have increased five-fold since 1999 reaching a record high of 108,000 deaths in 2021. The epidemic has unfolded through distinct waves of different drug types,…
This second paper of the series (see the first one in [1]) models the dynamics and structure of upper hurricane layer in adiabatic approximation. Formulation of simplified aerodynamic model allows analytically express the radial…
The Health and Retirement Study is a longitudinal study of US adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive score of subjects. Our analysis was…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a…
Given the limited pool of donor organs, accurate predictions of survival on the wait list and post transplantation are crucial for cardiac transplantation decisions and policy. However, current clinical risk scores do not yield accurate…
Amidst escalating climate change, hurricanes are inflicting severe socioeconomic impacts, marked by heightened economic losses and increased displacement. Previous research utilized nighttime light data to predict the impact of hurricanes…
Mortality risk is a major concern to patients have just been discharged from the intensive care unit (ICU). Many studies have been directed to construct machine learning models to predict such risk. Although these models are highly…
AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate…
Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…
Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…
Mental disorders impact the lives of millions of people globally, not only impeding their day-to-day lives but also markedly reducing life expectancy. This paper addresses the persistent challenge of predicting mortality in patients with…
Estimating the mortality of birds and bats at wind turbines based on periodic carcass counts is challenging because carcasses may be removed by scavengers or may be missed in investigators' searches, leading to undercounting. Existing…
The problem we consider considers estimating a multivariate longitudinal panel data model whose outcomes can be a combination of discrete and continuous variables. This problem is challenging because the likelihood is usually analytically…
In this study, we examine a Bayesian approach to analyze extreme daily rainfall amounts and forecast return-levels. Estimating the probability of occurrence and quantiles of future extreme events is important in many applications, including…
This article describes a method to estimate the mortality rate ratio R from current status data with duration in a chronic condition in case the general mortality of the overall population is known. Apart from the general mortality, the…
Background: Following the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in early 2020, municipalities, regional governments and policymakers worldwide had to plan their Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) amidst a scenario of great uncertainty.…
Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…