相关论文: Individual Claims Forecasting with Bayesian Mixtur…

We propose a method for estimating the posterior distribution of a standard geostatistical model. After choosing the model formulation and specifying a prior, we use normal mixture densities to approximate the posterior distribution. The…

This paper aims to propose a novel deep learning-integrated framework for deriving reliable simulation input models through incorporating multi-source information. The framework sources and extracts multisource data generated from…

Predicting a customer's propensity-to-pay at an early point in the revenue cycle can provide organisations many opportunities to improve the customer experience, reduce hardship and reduce the risk of impaired cash flow and occurrence of…

We develop Bayesian machine learning methods for mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. This involves handling frequency mismatches and specifying functional relationships between many predictors and the dependent variable. We use…

Insurance industry is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Assessment of future number of claims and incurred losses is critical for disaster preparedness and risk management. In this project, we study the effect of…

We propose a stochastic model for claims reserving that captures dependence along development years within a single triangle. This dependence is of autoregressive form of order $p$ and is achieved through the use of latent variables. We…

For two vast families of mixture distributions and a given prior, we provide unified representations of posterior and predictive distributions. Model applications presented include bivariate mixtures of Gamma distributions labelled as…

Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…

We propose a Bayesian forecast combination framework that, for the first time, embeds forward-looking signals, formulated as predictive priors, directly into the time-varying weight-updating process. This approach enables weights to adapt…

We propose a multinomial logistic regression model for link prediction in a time series of directed binary networks. To account for the dynamic nature of the data we employ a dynamic model for the model parameters that is strongly connected…

Recent advances in computing power and the potential to make more realistic assumptions due to increased flexibility have led to the increased prevalence of simulation models in economics. While models of this class, and particularly…

Accurate trend forecasting in healthcare time series is essential for planning and resource allocation. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for predicting oncology demand trends, modeling weekly appointments as a Poisson process with a…

We develop a novel probabilistic approach for multi-label classification that is based on the mixtures-of-experts architecture combined with recently introduced conditional tree-structured Bayesian networks. Our approach captures different…

We introduce finite mixtures of Ising models as a novel approach to study multivariate patterns of associations of binary variables. Our proposed models combine the strengths of Ising models and multivariate Bernoulli mixture models. We…

Non-Gaussian mixture models are gaining increasing attention for mixture model-based clustering particularly when dealing with data that exhibit features such as skewness and heavy tails. Here, such a mixture distribution is presented,…

Improved computational power has enabled different disciplines to predict causal relationships among modeled variables using Bayesian network inference. While many alternative algorithms have been proposed to improve the efficiency and…

The collective risk model differentiates usually between claims frequencies (and their distribution) and claim sizes (and their distribution). For the claims frequencies typically classical discrete distributions are considered, such as…

An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…

Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in…

Making inferences from data streams is a pervasive problem in many modern data analysis applications. But it requires to address the problem of continuous model updating and adapt to changes or drifts in the underlying data generating…