相关论文: Individual Claims Forecasting with Bayesian Mixtur…

Effective intervention strategies for epidemics rely on the identification of their origin and on the robustness of the predictions made by network disease models. We introduce a Bayesian uncertainty quantification framework to infer model…

Each year, almost 10% of claims are denied by payers (i.e., health insurance plans). With the cost to recover these denials and underpayments, predicting payer response (likelihood of payment) from claims data with a high degree of accuracy…

Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected…

This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing Bayesian belief networks from a database of cases. Potential applications include computer-assisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of…

Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…

Mixed data refers to a type of data in which variables can be of multiple types, such as continuous, discrete, or categorical. This data is routinely collected in various fields, including healthcare and social sciences. A common goal in…

We propose a Machine Learning approach for optimal macroeconomic density forecasting in a high-dimensional setting where the underlying model exhibits a known group structure. Our approach is general enough to encompass specific forecasting…

Although existing machine learning-based methods for traffic accident analysis can provide good quality results to downstream tasks, they lack interpretability which is crucial for this critical problem. This paper proposes an interpretable…

We propose an interdisciplinary framework that combines Bayesian predictive inference, a well-established tool in Machine Learning, with Formal Methods rooted in the computer science community. Bayesian predictive inference allows for…

Accurate intraday forecasts are essential for power system operations, complementing day-ahead forecasts that gradually lose relevance as new information becomes available. This paper introduces a Bayesian updating mechanism that converts…

As the costs of sensors and associated IT infrastructure decreases - as exemplified by the Internet of Things - increasing volumes of observational data are becoming available for use by environmental scientists. However, as the number of…

Adaptive enrichment trials aim to identify and recruit participants most likely to benefit from treatment based on evolving biomarker evidence, with the goal of informing individualized treatment recommendations. Bayesian methods are well…

In many settings, a data curator links records from two files to produce datasets that are shared with secondary analysts. Analysts use the linked files to estimate models of interest, such as regressions. Such two-stage approaches do not…

Future grid management systems will coordinate distributed production and storage resources to manage, in a cost effective fashion, the increased load and variability brought by the electrification of transportation and by a higher share of…

Finite mixture models are a useful statistical model class for clustering and density approximation. In the Bayesian framework finite mixture models require the specification of suitable priors in addition to the data model. These priors…

The rapidly increasing complexity of (mainly wireless) ad-hoc networks stresses the need of reliable distributed estimation of several variables of interest. The widely used centralized approach, in which the network nodes communicate their…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

It is very challenging to select informative features from tens of thousands of measured features in high-throughput data analysis. Recently, several parametric/regression models have been developed utilizing the gene network information to…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

In this paper we present a framework for dynamically constructing Bayesian networks. We introduce the notion of a background knowledge base of schemata, which is a collection of parameterized conditional probability statements. These…