相关论文: Estimating the Effect of Central Bank Independence…

We introduce an independence criterion based on entropy regularized optimal transport. Our criterion can be used to test for independence between two samples. We establish non-asymptotic bounds for our test statistic and study its…

This article presents evidence based on a panel of 35 countries over the past 30 years that the Phillips curve relation holds for food inflation. That is, broader economic overheating does push up the food component of the CPI in a…

The subject of this study is inflation, a problem that has plagued America and the world over the last several decades. Despite a rich trove of scholarly studies and a wide range of tools developed to deal with inflation, we are nowhere…

Empirical growth analysis has three major problems --- variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence --- which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. The purpose of this study is to propose…

The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…

Inflationary models are usually UV sensitive. Several mechanism have been proposed to protect the necessary features of the potential, and most notably (softly broken) global symmetries as shift-symmetry. We show that, even in presence of…

This paper analyzes the bank lending channel and the heterogeneous effects on the euro area, providing evidence that the channel is indeed working. The analysis of the transmission mechanism is based on structural impulse responses to an…

Causal inference is widely used in various fields, such as biology, psychology and economics, etc. In observational studies, we need to balance the covariates before estimating causal effect. This study extends the one-dimensional entropy…

Causal mediation analysis is a useful tool for epidemiological research, but it has been criticized for relying on a "cross-world" independence assumption that is empirically difficult to verify and problematic to justify based on…

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the inflation rate and its proximate determinants in Argentina, using quarterly data over the period 2004-2022 and an error-correction vector model approach. Unlike previous literature,…

In the picture of eternal inflation, our observable universe resides inside a single bubble nucleated from an inflating false vacuum. Many of the theories giving rise to eternal inflation predict that we have causal access to collisions…

For western economies a long-forgotten phenomenon is on the horizon: rising inflation rates. We propose a novel approach christened D2ML to identify drivers of national inflation. D2ML combines machine learning for model selection with time…

This paper tests the feasibility and estimates the cost of climate control through economic policies. It provides a toolbox for a statistical historical assessment of a Stochastic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy, and its use in…

In this paper, we assess whether using non-linear dimension reduction techniques pays off for forecasting inflation in real-time. Several recent methods from the machine learning literature are adopted to map a large dimensional dataset…

This paper aims to reevaluate the Taylor Rule, through a linear and a nonlinear method, such that its estimated federal funds rates match those actually previously implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank. In the linear method, this paper…

A unified approach to quintessence and inflation is investigated with the use of a single scalar field. It is argued that successful potentials have to approximate a combination of exponential and inverse power-law decline in the limit of…

We investigate the observational signatures of many-field inflation and present analytic expressions for the spectral index as a function of the prior. For a given prior we employ the central limit theorem and the horizon crossing…

We propose the conditional predictive impact (CPI), a consistent and unbiased estimator of the association between one or several features and a given outcome, conditional on a reduced feature set. Building on the knockoff framework of…

We investigate the possible influence of very-high-energy physics on inflationary predictions focussing on whether effective field theories can allow effects which are parametrically larger than order H^2/M^2, where M is the scale of heavy…

The theory of thermal macroeconomics (TM) analyses economic phenomena within the mathematical framework of classical thermodynamics, using a set of axioms that apply to the purely macroscopic aspects of an economy [CM]. The theory shows…