相关论文: Estimating the Effect of Central Bank Independence…

Calculating the primordial bispectrum predicted by a model of inflation and comparing it to what we see in the sky is very computationally intensive, necessitating layers of approximations and limiting the models which can be constrained.…

Understanding regional Consumer Price Index (CPI) dynamics is essential for timely and effective economic policymaking. However, traditional modeling procedures typically rely only on parametric panel modeling with low-frequency and…

Consumer credit services offered by e-commerce platforms provide customers with convenient loan access during shopping and have the potential to stimulate sales. To understand the causal impact of credit lines on spending, previous studies…

It is now understood that inflation dynamics comes in two forms, isentropic or cold inflation and nonisentropic or warm inflation. In the former, inflation occurs without radiation production, whereas in the latter both radiation production…

In this work we propose a statistical approach to handling sources of theoretical uncertainty in string theory models of inflation. By viewing a model of inflation as a probabilistic graph, we show that there is an inevitable information…

Conditional-independence-based discovery uses statistical tests to identify a graphical model that represents the independence structure of variables in a dataset. These tests, however, can be unreliable, and algorithms are sensitive to…

We address the challenge of inferring causal effects in social network data. This results in challenges due to interference -- where a unit's outcome is affected by neighbors' treatments -- and network-induced confounding factors. While…

We have studied inflationary paradigm through an inflationary equation of state. With a single parameter equation of state as a function of the scalar field responsible for accelerated expansion, we find an observationally viable model…

We study the problem of deriving policies, or rules, that when enacted on a complex system, cause a desired outcome. Absent the ability to perform controlled experiments, such rules have to be inferred from past observations of the system's…

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

The proposed system aims to use various machine learning algorithms to enhance financial prediction and generate highly accurate analyses. It introduces an AI-driven platform which offers inflation-analysis, stock market prediction, and…

This paper examines the impact of increasing minimum wages, focusing primarily on their effect on employment. Our research involved analyzing the statistics of panel data, testing fixed effects and stationary, conducting linear regression,…

Randomized experiments in which the treatment of a unit can affect the outcomes of other units are becoming increasingly common in healthcare, economics, and in the social and information sciences. From a causal inference perspective, the…

This paper takes the development of Central bank digital currencies as a perspective, introduces it into the Baumol-Tobin money demand theoretical framework, establishes the transactional money demand model under Central bank Digital…

While inflation gives an appealing explanation of observed cosmological data, there are a wide range of different inflation models, providing differing predictions for the initial perturbations. Typically models are motivated either by…

The aim of the present paper is to provide criteria for a central bank of how to choose among different monetary-policy rules when caring about a number of policy targets such as the output gap and expected inflation. Special attention is…

Mathematical proof aims to deliver confident conclusions, but a very similar process of deduction can be used to make uncertain estimates that are open to revision. A key ingredient in such reasoning is the use of a "default" estimate of…

Currency crises are frequently discussed retrospectively as a necessary and deterministic outcome of a finite sequence of fiscal decisions, monetary manoeuvres, and limited exogenous inputs. Parallelly, the Twin Deficits Hypothesis (TDH)…

Studying causal effects of continuous treatments is important for gaining a deeper understanding of many interventions, policies, or medications, yet researchers are often left with observational studies for doing so. In the observational…

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…