相关论文: A copula-based time series model for global horizo…

We present a joint copula-based model for insurance claims and sizes. It uses bivariate copulae to accommodate for the dependence between these quantities. We derive the general distribution of the policy loss without the restrictive…

An approach is presented for making predictions about functional time series. The method is applied to data coming from periodically correlated processes and electricity demand, obtaining accurate point forecasts and narrow prediction bands…

Renewable energy power is influenced by the atmospheric system, which exhibits nonlinear and time-varying features. To address this, a dynamic temporal correlation modeling framework is proposed for renewable energy scenario generation. A…

Vine copulas are a type of multivariate dependence model, composed of a collection of bivariate copulas that are combined according to a specific underlying graphical structure. Their flexibility and practicality in moderate and high…

The mean-variance portfolio model, based on the risk-return trade-off for optimal asset allocation, remains foundational in portfolio optimization. However, its reliance on restrictive assumptions about asset return distributions limits its…

We propose a generalisation of the logistic regression model, that aims to account for non-linear main effects and complex interactions, while keeping the model inherently explainable. This is obtained by starting with log-odds that are…

Accurate intraday forecasts of the power output by PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems are critical to improve the operation of energy distribution grids. We describe a neural autoregressive model that aims to perform such intraday forecasts. We…

We present in this Letter the first global comparison between traditional line-tied steady state magnetohydrodynamic models and a new, fully time-dependent thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the global corona. The maps are…

Joint multivariate longitudinal and time-to-event data are gaining increasing attention in the biomedical sciences where subjects are followed over time to monitor the progress of a disease or medical condition. In the insurance context,…

Generative probabilistic forecasting produces future time series samples according to the conditional probability distribution given past time series observations. Such techniques are essential in risk-based decision-making and planning…

The time series theory is set in this work under the domain of general elliptically contoured distributions. The advent of a time series approach that is in accordance with the expected reality of dependence between errors, transfers the…

In this paper we propose a flexible class of multivariate nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models, based on copulas. More precisely, we assume that the observation equation and the state equation are defined by copula families that are…

When modeling the distribution of a multivariate continuous random vector using the so-called \emph{copula approach}, it is not uncommon to have ties in the coordinate samples of the available data because of rounding or lack of measurement…

While there is substantial need for dependence models in higher dimensions, most existing models quickly become rather restrictive and barely balance parsimony and flexibility. Hierarchical constructions may improve on that by grouping…

We introduce a general framework for deriving effective dynamics from arbitrary time-dependent generators, based on a systematic operator cumulant expansion. Unlike traditional approaches, which typically assume periodic or adiabatic…

Copula-based time series models can model univariate and stationary time series in a flexible way by decomposing the joint distribution of consecutive observations into a copula and the stationary distribution. Implicitly this approach…

Copula is a powerful tool to model multivariate data. We propose the modelling of intraday financial returns of multiple assets through copula. The problem originates due to the asynchronous nature of intraday financial data. We propose a…

In recent years, probabilistic forecasting is an emerging topic, which is why there is a growing need of suitable methods for the evaluation of multivariate predictions. We analyze the sensitivity of the most common scoring rules,…

An approach to modelling volatile financial return series using stationary d-vine copula processes combined with Lebesgue-measure-preserving transformations known as v-transforms is proposed. By developing a method of stochastically…

We analyze and model total solar irradiance variability on time scales from minutes to months, excluding variations due to p-mode oscillations, using a combination of convective and magnetic components. These include granulation, the…