相关论文: Forecasting multiple functional time series in a g…

Conformal prediction provides a model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample validity guarantees, making it an attractive tool for constructing reliable prediction sets. However, existing approaches commonly…

Aggregation constraints, arising from geographical or sectoral division, frequently emerge in a large set of time series. Coherent forecasts of these constrained series are anticipated to conform to their hierarchical structure organized by…

Seasonal time series Forecasting remains a challenging problem due to the long-term dependency from seasonality. In this paper, we propose a two-stage framework to forecast univariate seasonal time series. The first stage explicitly learns…

Text and time series data offer complementary views of financial markets: news articles provide narrative context about company events, while stock prices reflect how markets react to those events. However, despite their complementary…

This paper proposes a new model-based approach to small area estimation of general finite-population parameters based on grouped data or frequency data, which is often available from sample surveys. Grouped data contains information on…

Continuous-time multi-state survival models can be used to describe health-related processes over time. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions between the living states, the likelihood is constructed using transition…

Point forecasting of univariate time series is a challenging problem with extensive work having been conducted. However, nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of time series, such as in the form of quantiles or prediction intervals is an…

Patient time series classification faces challenges in high degrees of dimensionality and missingness. In light of patient similarity theory, this study explores effective temporal feature engineering and reduction, missing value…

We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often…

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken the world by storm with its high infection rate. Investigating its geographical disparities has paramount interest in order to gauge its relationships with political decisions, economic indicators, or mental…

In this paper, we conduct a simulation study with subject-level data to evaluate conventional meta-regression approaches (study-level random, fixed, and mixed effects) against seven methodology specifications new to meta-regressions that…

Survival analysis serves as a fundamental component in numerous healthcare applications, where the determination of the time to specific events (such as the onset of a certain disease or death) for patients is crucial for clinical…

In this paper, we are concerned with improving the forecast capabilities of the Global approach to Time Series. We assume that the normal techniques of Global mapping are applied, the noise reduction is performed, etc. Then, using the…

A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation…

This paper introduces new methods to track the offset between two multivariate time series on a continuous basis. We then apply this framework to COVID-19 counts on a state-by-state basis in the United States to determine the progression…

Recently, there has been growing interest in incorporating textual information into foundation models for time series forecasting. However, it remains unclear whether and under what conditions such multimodal integration consistently yields…

Time series data with missing values is common across many domains. Healthcare presents special challenges due to prolonged periods of sensor disconnection. In such cases, having a confidence measure for imputed values is critical. Most…

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

Time series clustering is essential in scientific applications, yet methods for functional time series, collections of infinite-dimensional curves treated as random elements in a Hilbert space, remain underdeveloped. This work presents…

Existing datasets available to address crucial problems, such as child mortality and family planning discontinuation in developing countries, are not ample for data-driven approaches. This is partly due to disjoint data collection efforts…