相关论文: Forecasting multiple functional time series in a g…

Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for…

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…

In studies of recurrent events, joint modeling approaches are often needed to allow for potential dependent censoring by a terminal event such as death. Joint frailty models for recurrent events and death with an additional dependence…

We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…

In recent years, a wide range of mortality models has been proposed to address the diverse factors influencing mortality rates, which has highlighted the need to perform model selection. Traditional mortality model selection methods, such…

Pattern similarity-based methods are widely used in classification and regression problems. Repeated, similar-shaped cycles observed in seasonal time series encourage to apply these methods for forecasting. In this paper we use the pattern…

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively…

Particulate matter data now include various particle sizes, which often manifest as a collection of curves observed sequentially over time. When considering 51 distinct particle sizes, these curves form a high-dimensional functional time…

We consider a setting where multiple entities inter-act with each other over time and the time-varying statuses of the entities are represented as multiple correlated time series. For example, speed sensors are deployed in different…

Log-symmetric regression models are particularly useful when the response variable is continuous, strictly positive and asymmetric. In this paper, we proposed a class of log-symmetric regression models in the context of correlated errors.…

Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…

Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation aims to ensure consistency across forecasts made at different temporal and cross-sectional levels. We explore the relationships between sequential, iterative, and optimal combination approaches, and…

This paper deals with inference and prediction for multiple correlated time series, where one has also the choice of using a candidate pool of contemporaneous predictors for each target series. Starting with a structural model for the…

Survival regression is widely used to model time-to-events data, to explore how covariates may influence the occurrence of events. Modern datasets often encompass a vast number of covariates across many subjects, with only a subset of the…

Existing metrics in competing risks survival analysis such as concordance and accuracy do not evaluate a model's ability to jointly predict the event type and the event time. To address these limitations, we propose a new metric, which we…

Classical functional linear regression models the relationship between a scalar response and a functional covariate, where the coefficient function is assumed to be identical for all subjects. In this paper, the classical model is extended…

BACKGROUND. The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one third of all countries require mortality models to infer complete age schedules of mortality, required for population estimates, projections/forecasts and many other tasks in…

In this paper, a novel method to perform model-based clustering of time series is proposed. The procedure relies on two iterative steps: (i) K global forecasting models are fitted via pooling by considering the series pertaining to each…

The determination of the shapes of mortality curves, the estimation and projection of mortality patterns over time, and the investigation of differences in mortality patterns across different small underdeveloped populations have received…

Time series data appears in a variety of applications such as smart transportation and environmental monitoring. One of the fundamental problems for time series analysis is time series forecasting. Despite the success of recent deep time…