相关论文: Contributions of Talent, Perspective, Context and …
We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-meter dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with…
We review recent numerical results on the role of talent and luck in getting success by means of a schematic agent-based model. In general the role of luck is found to be very relevant in order to get success, while talent is necessary but…
The largely dominant meritocratic paradigm of highly competitive Western cultures is rooted on the belief that success is due mainly, if not exclusively, to personal qualities such as talent, intelligence, skills, efforts or risk taking.…
Individual sports competitions provide a natural setting for examining the relative importance of talent and luck/chance in achieving success. The belief that success is primarily due to individual abilities and hard work rather than…
This paper presents a data-driven statistical framework to quantify the role of skill in games, addressing the long-standing question of whether success in a game is predominantly driven by skill or chance. We analyze player level data from…
Games often incorporate random elements in the form of dice or shuffled card decks. This randomness is a key contributor to the player experience and the variety of game situations encountered. There is a tension between a level of…
This article investigates the influence of luck and strategic considerations on performance of teams participating in the M6 investment challenge. We find that there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the extreme Sharpe ratios…
Humanity has been fascinated by the pursuit of fortune since time immemorial, and many successful outcomes benefit from strokes of luck. But success is subject to complexity, uncertainty, and change - and at times becoming increasingly…
Opportunities, such as access to education or family background, shape income inequality by influencing the chances of economic success. Unequal opportunities create uncertainty about whether success is merit- or luck-based. We examine how…
Within the framework of Game Theory, contests study decision-making in those situations or conflicts when rewards depend on the relative rank between contenders rather than their absolute performance. By relying on the formalism of Tullock…
In order to deploy autonomous agents to domains such as autonomous driving, infrastructure management, health care, and finance, they must be able to adapt safely to unseen situations. The current approach in constructing such agents is to…
We introduce a quantitative framework for separating skill and chance in games by modeling them as complementary sources of control over stochastic decision trees. We define the Skill-Luck Index S(G) in [-1, 1] by decomposing game outcomes…
In all competitions where results are based upon an individual's performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one…
Reinforcement learning (RL) has produced spectacular results in games, robotics, and continuous control. Yet, despite these successes, learned policies often fail to generalize beyond their training distribution, limiting real-world impact.…
Iterated reference games - in which players repeatedly pick out novel referents using language - present a test case for agents' ability to perform context-sensitive pragmatic reasoning in multi-turn linguistic environments. We tested…
Understanding the affective, cognitive and behavioural processes involved in risk taking is essential for treatment and for setting environmental conditions to limit damage. Using Temporal Difference Reinforcement Learning (TDRL) we…
The aim of the strategic analysis is to (simply) carry out the game between the implementing body and possible links to the existing market situation. We are therefore playing a strategic game between us and the outside world. This…
Effective teamwork is essential in structured, performance-driven environments, from professional organizations to high-stakes competitive settings. As tasks grow more complex, achieving high performance requires not only technical…
Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of…
The availability of massive data about sports activities offers nowadays the opportunity to quantify the relation between performance and success. In this study, we analyze more than 6,000 games and 10 million events in six European leagues…