相关论文: Reading Macroeconomics From the Yield Curve: The T…

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the…

This paper investigates the relationships between economic growth, investment in human capital and income equality in Turkey. The conclusion drawn based on the data from the OECD and the World Bank suggests that economic growth can improve…

Viewing a yield curve as a sparse collection of measurements on a latent continuous random function allows us to model it statistically as a sparsely observed functional time series. Doing so, we use the state-of-the-art methods in…

This paper examines the relationship between net FDI inflows and real GDP for Turkey from 1970 to 2019. Although conventional economic growth theories and most empirical research suggest that there is a bi-directional positive effect…

The literature on using yield curves to forecast recessions customarily uses 10-year--three-month Treasury yield spread without verification on the pair selection. This study investigates whether the predictive ability of spread can be…

In fixed income sector, the yield curve is probably the most observed indicator by the market for trading and fifinancing purposes. A yield curve plots interest rates across different contract maturities from short end to as long as 30…

A large class of trading strategies focus on opportunities offered by the yield curve. In particular, a set of yield curve trading strategies are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts. Based on these strategies' positive…

This manuscript introduces deep learning models that simultaneously describe the dynamics of several yield curves. We aim to learn the dependence structure among the different yield curves induced by the globalization of financial markets…

We explore tree-based macroeconomic regime-switching in the context of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) yield-curve model. In particular, we customize the tree-growing algorithm to partition macroeconomic variables based on the DNS model's…

This study analyzes the validity of jobless growth in Turkiye on sectoral basis. It analyzes the impacts of agriculture, industry, construction and services sectors on unemployment using annual data for the period 2000-2022. ARDL method is…

There are different views in the literature regarding economic growth and development. Growth and development hypotheses have been addressed from many different perspectives. It is aimed to examine the view of production with the Heavy…

The term structure of interest rates (yield curve) is a critical facet of financial analytics, impacting various investment and risk management decisions. It is used by the central bank to conduct and monitor its monetary policy. That…

The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such…

This study analyzes the impacts of exchange rate and inflation on exports in Turkiye. Annual data for the period 1995-2023 were used in the analysis. The Johansen cointegration analysis and Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) method were employed…

While machine learning has revolutionized many fields such as natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision, its impact on time-series forecasting is still widely disputed, especially in the finance domain. This paper compares…

This paper is motivated by the panel surveys, called Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (SILC), conducted annually on (randomly selected) country-representative households to monitor EU 2020 aims on poverty reduction. We…

GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors anticipate…

In Kenya, interest payments on external debt have been increasing from 2010 to 2015, while GDP growth experienced a slight decline over the same period. Policymakers are concerned that the rapid increase in external debt in developing…

In traditional financial markets, yield curves are widely available for countries (and, by extension, currencies), financial institutions, and large corporates. These curves are used to calibrate stochastic interest rate models, discount…

In this study, we aimed to examine the effect of VAT revenues and Deposit Interest Rates on Inflation in Turkey between 1985-2022. Within the framework of econometric analysis of the obtained data, the analysis was carried out using ADF…