相关论文: Solar Flare Intensity Prediction with Machine Lear…

Whilst the most dynamic solar active regions (ARs) are known to flare frequently, predicting the occurrence of individual flares and their magnitude, is very much a developing field with strong potentials for machine learning applications.…

Precisely forecasting wind speed is essential for wind power producers and grid operators. However, this task is challenging due to the stochasticity of wind speed. To accurately predict short-term wind speed under uncertainties, this paper…

In this dataset we provide a comprehensive collection of magnetograms (images quantifying the strength of the magnetic field) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The dataset…

A regression modeling method of space weather prediction is proposed. It allows forecasting Dst index up to 6 hours ahead with about 90% correlation. It can also be used for constructing phenomenological models of interaction between the…

Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares. Initial efforts along these lines employed comparatively simple models, correlating features extracted from observations of…

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather. Their prediction depends on various factors including the source solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The Geostationary…

Geomagnetic storms (GSTs) driven by solar wind-magnetosphere coupling can severely disrupt technological systems, motivating the need for improved prediction accuracy and longer warning times. In this study, we develop a physics-informed…

Early and accurate prediction of solar active region (AR) emergence is crucial for space weather forecasting. Building on established Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based approaches for forecasting the continuum intensity decrease associated…

The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…

We present a hybrid forecasting strategy that combines numerical modeling, statistical forecasting, and machine learning methods to predict enhanced bursts of solar activity. These bursts, referred to here as space weather seasons, occur on…

We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…

The forecast method introduced by Kors\'os et al.(2014) is generalised from the horizontal magnetic gradient (GM), defined between two opposite polarity spots, to all spots within an appropriately defined region close to the magnetic…

Solar eruptions, including flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), have a significant impact on Earth. Some flares are associated with CMEs, and some flares are not. The association between flares and CMEs is not always obvious. In this…

Solar flares are observed and classified according to their intensity measured with the GOES X-ray Sensors. We show that the duration of a flare, as measured by the full width at half maximum (FWHM) in GOES is not related to the size of the…

Solar flares commonly have a hot onset precursor event" (HOPE), detectable from soft X-ray observations. Detecting this requires subtraction of pre-flare fluxes from the non-flaring Sun prior to the event, fitting an isothermal emission…

Waiting time distributions allow us to distinguish at least three different types of dynamical systems, such as (i) linear random processes (with no memory); (ii) nonlinear, avalanche-type, nonstationary Poisson processes (with memory…

A demonstrated failure mode for operational solar flare forecasting is the inability to forecast flares that occur near, or just beyond, the solar limb. To address this shortcoming, we develop a "4pi" full-heliosphere event forecasting…

Rising global energy demand from population growth raises concerns about the sustainability of fossil fuels. Consequently, the energy sector has increasingly transitioned to renewable energy sources like solar and wind, which are naturally…

It is important to calculate and analyze temperature and humidity prediction accuracies among quantitative meteorological forecasting. This study manipulates the extant neural network methods to foster the predictive accuracy. To achieve…

We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…