相关论文: Solar Flare Intensity Prediction with Machine Lear…

Space weather phenomena such as solar flares, have massive destructive power when reaches certain amount of magnitude. Such high magnitude solar flare event can interfere space-earth radio communications and neutralize space-earth…

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting using robust methods. We demonstrate a proof of concept of using a data-driven supervised…

We developed an operational solar flare prediction model using deep neural networks, named Deep Flare Net (DeFN). DeFN can issue probabilistic forecasts of solar flares in two categories, such as >=M-class and <M-class events or >=C-class…

All three components of the current density are required to compute the heating rate due to free magnetic energy dissipation. Here we present a first test of a new model developed to determine if the times of increases in the resistive…

We study the predictive capabilities of magnetic feature properties (MF) generated by Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART) for solar flare forecasting from two datasets: the full dataset of SMART detections from 1996 to 2010 that has…

Solar flares originate from magnetically active regions but not all solar active regions give rise to a flare. Therefore, the challenge of solar flare prediction benefits by an intelligent computational analysis of physics-based properties…

Solar flare activity is characterised by different classification systems, both in optical and X-ray ranges. The most generally accepted classifications of solar flares describe important parameters of flares such as the maximum of…

Large scale solar eruptions significantly impact space weather and damages space-based human infrastructures. It is necessary to predict large scale solar eruptions, which will enable us to protect our vulnerable infrastructures of modern…

Solar flares are defined as outbursts on the surface of the Sun. They occur when energy accumulated in magnetic fields enclosing solar active regions (ARs) is abruptly expelled. Solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections are sources…

Solar flare prediction plays an important role in understanding and forecasting space weather. The main goal of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), one of the instruments on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, is to study the origin…

We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…

In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying…

This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems…

Current operational forecasts of solar eruptions are made by human experts using a combination of qualitative shape-based classification systems and historical data about flaring frequencies. In the past decade, there has been a great deal…

In this paper, we introduce a novel methodology for leveraging shape-based characteristics of magnetograms of active region (AR) patches and provide a novel capability for predicting solar flares covering the entirety of the solar disk (AR…

We present a case study of solar flare forecasting by means of metadata feature time series, by treating it as a prominent class-imbalance and temporally coherent problem. Taking full advantage of pre-flare time series in solar active…

This paper compares different forecasting methods and models to predict average values of solar irradiance with a sampling time of 15 min over a prediction horizon of up to 3 h. The methods considered only require historic solar irradiance…

A solar active region (AR) may produce multiple notable flares during its passage across the solar disk. We investigate successive flares from flare-eruptive active regions, and explore their relationship with solar magnetic parameters. We…

Ahead-of-time forecasting of the output power of power plants is essential for the stability of the electricity grid and ensuring uninterrupted service. However, forecasting renewable energy sources is difficult due to the chaotic behavior…

Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…