相关论文: Modelling dependence within and across run-off tri…

We revisit Schnieper's model, which decomposes incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves into two components: reserves for newly reported claims (true IBNR) and reserves for changes over time in the estimated cost of already reported claims…

The correct inferential object in claims reserving is the conditional predictive distribution $p(R \mid \mathcal{D}, \hat\theta)$, where $\mathcal{D}$ is the observed triangle held fixed. We refer to this as the conditioning principle. All…

Claim reserving primarily relies on macro-level models, with the Chain-Ladder method being the most widely adopted. These methods were heuristically developed without minimal statistical foundations, relying on oversimplified data…

Prediction of outstanding claims has been done via nonparametric models (chain ladder), semiparametric models (overdispersed poisson) or fully parametric models. In this paper, we propose models based on negative binomial distributions for…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

Motivated by queueing applications, we study various reflected autoregressive processes with dependencies. Amongst others, we study cases where the interarrival and service times are proportionally dependent with additive and/or subtracting…

We consider the general problem of modeling temporal data with long-range dependencies, wherein new observations are fully or partially predictable based on temporally-distant, past observations. A sufficiently powerful temporal model…

We introduce an individual claims forecasting framework utilizing Bayesian mixture density networks that can be used for claims analytics tasks such as case reserving and triaging. The proposed approach enables incorporating claims…

Ecologists increasingly rely on Bayesian methods to fit capture-recapture models. Capture-recapture models are used to estimate abundance while accounting for imperfect detectability in individual-level data. A variety of implementations…

Suppose that we observe a short time series where each time-t-specific data-structure consists of many slightly dependent data indexed by a and that we want to estimate a feature of the law of the experiment that depends neither on t nor on…

We propose an individual claims reserving model based on the conditional Aalen-Johansen estimator, as developed in Bladt and Furrer (2023b). In our approach, we formulate a multi-state problem, where the underlying variable is the…

We propose an approach for learning the causal structure in stochastic dynamical systems with a $1$-step functional dependency in the presence of latent variables. We propose an information-theoretic approach that allows us to recover the…

In this paper, we use augmented the hierarchical latent variable model to model multi-period time series, where the dynamics of time series are governed by factors or trends in multiple periods. Previous methods based on stacked recurrent…

There is currently a focus on statistical methods which can use historical trial information to help accelerate the discovery, development and delivery of medicine. Bayesian methods can be constructed so that the borrowing is "dynamic" in…

We consider the scenario where the parameters of a probabilistic model are expected to vary over time. We construct a novel prior distribution that promotes sparsity and adapts the strength of correlation between parameters at successive…

This research shows that under certain mathematical conditions, a threshold autoregressive model (TAR) can represent the leverage effect based on its conditional variance function. Furthermore, the analytical expressions for the third and…

An extension of the latent class model is presented for clustering categorical data by relaxing the classical "class conditional independence assumption" of variables. This model consists in grouping the variables into inter-independent and…

This article focuses on inference in logistic regression for high-dimensional binary outcomes. A popular approach induces dependence across the outcomes by including latent factors in the linear predictor. Bayesian approaches are useful for…

Claim reserving in insurance has been studied through two primary frameworks: the macro-level approach, which estimates reserves at an aggregate level (e.g., Chain-Ladder), and the micro-level approach, which estimates reserves at the…

We propose a stochastic model allowing property and casualty insurers with multiple business lines to measure their liabilities for incurred claims risk and calculate associated capital requirements. Our model includes many desirable…