相关论文: Optimising reactive disease management using spati…
Epidemic propagation on networks represents an important departure from traditional massaction models. However, the high-dimensionality of the exact models poses a challenge to both mathematical analysis and parameter inference. By using…
Mathematical disease modelling has long operated under the assumption that any one infectious disease is caused by one transmissible pathogen spreading among a population. This paradigm has been useful in simplifying the biological reality…
Mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks can infer the future trajectory of an epidemic, which can inform policy decisions. Another task is inferring the origin of a disease, which is relatively difficult with current mathematical models.…
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…
In wireless sensor networks (WSNs), main task of each sensor node is to sense the physical activity (i.e., targets or disaster conditions) and then to report it to the control center for further process. For this, sensor nodes are attached…
A novel predictive modeling framework for the spread of infectious diseases using high dimensional partial differential equations is developed and implemented. A scalar function representing the infected population is defined on a…
Agricultural losses to pest represent an important challenge in a global warming scenario. Intercropping is an alternative farming practice that promotes pest control without the use of chemical pesticides. Here we develop a mathematical…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model is a canonical model for emerging disease outbreaks. Such outbreaks are naturally modeled as taking place on networks. A theoretical challenge in network epidemiology is the dynamic correlations…
We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…
The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…
Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes…
Most spreading processes require spatial proximity between agents. The stationary state of spreading dynamics in a population of mobile agents thus depends on the interplay between the time and length scales involved in the epidemic process…
Interaction patterns among individuals play vital roles in spreading infectious diseases. Understanding these patterns and integrating their impact in modeling diffusion dynamics of infectious diseases are important for epidemiological…
The role of direct cell-to-cell spread in viral infections - where virions spread between host and susceptible cells without needing to be secreted into the extracellular environment - has come to be understood as essential to the dynamics…
Using digitized images of the three-dimensional, branching structures for root systems of bean seedlings, together with analytical and numerical methods that map a common 'SIR' epidemiological model onto the bond percolation problem, we…
We introduce a kinetic model that couples the movement of a population of individuals with the dynamics of a pathogen in the same population. We consider that transmission occurs when a susceptible and an infectious individual are…
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…
This article explores mathematical models for understanding the evolution of contagious diseases. The most widely known set of models are the compartmental ones, which are based on a set of differential equations. But these are not the only…
Disease and pest control largely rely on pesticides use and progress still remains to be made towards more sustainable practices. Pest Monitoring Networks (PMNs) can provide useful information for improving crop protection by restricting…