相关论文: Bayesian forecasting of multivariate time series: …

Hierarchical forecasting is a key problem in many practical multivariate forecasting applications - the goal is to simultaneously predict a large number of correlated time series that are arranged in a pre-specified aggregation hierarchy.…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a…

In this article, a multiple split method is proposed that enables construction of multidimensional probabilistic forecasts of a selected set of variables. The method uses repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous…

Estimating dependence relationships between variables is a crucial issue in many applied domains, such as medicine, social sciences and psychology. When several variables are entertained, these can be organized into a network which encodes…

This work introduces a novel, simple, and flexible method to quantify irreversibility in generic high-dimensional time series based on the well-known mapping to a binary classification problem. Our approach utilizes gradient boosting for…

Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data is important in many engineering and scientific applications. Recent state-of-the-art works ignore the inter-relations between variates, using their model on each variate independently.…

We present a novel Bayesian approach to analysing multiple time-series with the aim of detecting abnormal regions. These are regions where the properties of the data change from some normal or baseline behaviour. We allow for the…

The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is…

Complex systems are often characterized by the interplay of multiple interconnected dynamical processes operating across a range of temporal scales. This phenomenon is widespread in both biological and artificial scenarios, making it…

Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome…

An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…

Multistage stochastic programming provides a modeling framework for sequential decision-making problems that involve uncertainty. One typically overlooked aspect of this methodology is how uncertainty is incorporated into modeling.…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

Systems are commonly monitored for health and security through collection and streaming of multivariate time series. Advances in time series forecasting due to adoption of multilayer recurrent neural network architectures make it possible…

The availability of multidimensional economic datasets has grown significantly in recent years. An example is bilateral trade values across goods among countries, comprising three dimensions -- importing countries, exporting countries, and…

The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive application of this type of models has been to…

Mathematical models of biological populations commonly use discrete structure classes to capture trait variation among individuals (e.g. age, size, phenotype, intracellular state). Upscaling these discrete models into continuum descriptions…

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

This expository paper discusses Bayesian decision analysis perspectives on problems of constrained forecasting. Foundational and pedagogic discussion contrasts decision analytic approaches with the traditional, but typically inappropriate,…