相关论文: Bayesian forecasting of multivariate time series: …

With the proliferation of modern high-resolution measuring instruments mounted on satellites, planes, ground-based vehicles and monitoring stations, a need has arisen for statistical methods suitable for the analysis of large spatial…

This paper generalises dynamic factor models for multidimensional dependent data. In doing so, it develops an interpretable technique to study complex information sources ranging from repeated surveys with a varying number of respondents to…

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…

Bayesian networks have been used extensively in diagnostic tasks such as medicine, where they represent the dependency relations between a set of symptoms and a set of diseases. A criticism of this type of knowledge representation is that…

Conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on the future paths of some other variables, are used routinely by empirical macroeconomists in a number of applied settings. In spite of this, the existing…

A Bayesian multivariate model with a structured covariance matrix for multi-way nested data is proposed. This flexible modeling framework allows for positive and for negative associations among clustered observations, and generalizes the…

Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…

The paper introduces a novel topological method for prediction and modeling for a nonlinear time--series that exhibit recurring patterns. According to the model, global manifold of the reconstructed state--space can be approximated by a few…

The multivariate time series forecasting has attracted more and more attention because of its vital role in different fields in the real world, such as finance, traffic, and weather. In recent years, many research efforts have been proposed…

Bayesian sociality models provide a scalable and flexible alternative for network analysis, capturing degree heterogeneity through actor-specific parameters while mitigating the identifiability challenges of latent space models. This paper…

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…

Bayes spaces were initially designed to provide a geometric framework for the modeling and analysis of distributional data. It has recently come to light that this methodology can be exploited to provide an orthogonal decomposition of…

It is often of interest to combine available estimates of a similar quantity from multiple data sources. When the corresponding variances of each estimate are also available, a model should take into account the uncertainty of the estimates…

Time series is a special type of sequence data, a sequence of real-valued random variables collected at even intervals of time. The real-world multivariate time series comes with noises and contains complicated local and global temporal…

The decreasing cost and improved sensor and monitoring system technology (e.g. fiber optics and strain gauges) have led to more measurements in close proximity to each other. When using such spatially dense measurement data in Bayesian…

In this paper, we use augmented the hierarchical latent variable model to model multi-period time series, where the dynamics of time series are governed by factors or trends in multiple periods. Previous methods based on stacked recurrent…

Multi-scale problems, where variables of interest evolve in different time-scales and live in different state-spaces, can be found in many fields of science. Here, we introduce a new recursive methodology for Bayesian inference that aims at…

Multilevel or hierarchical data structures can occur in many areas of research, including economics, psychology, sociology, agriculture, medicine, and public health. Over the last 25 years, there has been increasing interest in developing…

Time series are ubiquitous in our data rich world. In what follows I will describe how ideas from dynamical systems and topological data analysis can be combined to gain insights from time-varying data. We will see several applications to…

Temporal data, notably time series and spatio-temporal data, are prevalent in real-world applications. They capture dynamic system measurements and are produced in vast quantities by both physical and virtual sensors. Analyzing these data…