相关论文: Bayesian forecasting of multivariate time series: …

Accurate forecasting of bus travel time and its uncertainty is critical to service quality and operation of transit systems; for example, it can help passengers make better decisions on departure time, route choice, and even transport mode…

In the nonlinear prediction of scalar time series, the common practice is to reconstruct the state space using time-delay embedding and apply a local model on neighborhoods of the reconstructed space. The method of false nearest neighbors…

We consider multistage stochastic optimization problems involving multiple units. Each unit is a (small) control system. Static constraints couple units at each stage. We present a mix of spatial and temporal decompositions to tackle such…

High-dimensional time series datasets are becoming increasingly common in many areas of biological and social sciences. Some important applications include gene regulatory network reconstruction using time course gene expression data, brain…

We propose a multiscale approach for predicting quantities in dynamical systems which is explicitly structured to extract information in both fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions. We envision this method being generally applicable…

We propose models and algorithms for learning about random directions in simplex-valued data. The models are applied to the study of income level proportions and their changes over time in a geostatistical area. There are several notable…

Real-world time series exhibit temporally structured uncertainty: volatility clusters in turbulent regimes, dissipates in stable periods, and shifts abruptly around structural breaks. Yet many probabilistic forecasting methods estimate…

Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across space and time in large areal datasets remains challenging, as existing approaches are…

The use of high-power industrial equipment, such as large-scale mixing equipment or a hydrocyclone for separation of particles in liquid suspension, demands careful monitoring to ensure correct operation. The fundamental task of…

Making inferences from data streams is a pervasive problem in many modern data analysis applications. But it requires to address the problem of continuous model updating and adapt to changes or drifts in the underlying data generating…

We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…

Time series forecasting, which predicts future values from past observations, plays a central role in many domains and has driven the development of highly accurate neural network models. However, the complexity of these models often limits…

Recent years have seen a huge development in spatial modelling and prediction methodology, driven by the increased availability of remote-sensing data and the reduced cost of distributed-processing technology. It is well known that…

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Significant efforts have been made to integrate advanced network architectures and training strategies that enhance the capture of temporal…

In view of the current availability and variety of measured data, there is an increasing demand for powerful signal processing tools that can cope successfully with the associated problems that often arise when data are being analysed. In…

In many inverse problems, model parameters cannot be precisely determined from observational data. Bayesian inference provides a mechanism for capturing the resulting parameter uncertainty, but typically at a high computational cost. This…

While there have been a lot of recent developments in the context of Bayesian model selection and variable selection for high dimensional linear models, there is not much work in the presence of change point in literature, unlike the…

Degradation data are essential for determining the reliability of high-end products and systems, especially when covering multiple degradation characteristics (DCs). Modern degradation studies not only measure these characteristics but also…

Numerous deep learning architectures have been developed to accommodate the diversity of time series datasets across different domains. In this article, we survey common encoder and decoder designs used in both one-step-ahead and…

In this paper we present a family of algorithms that can simultaneously align and cluster sets of multidimensional curves measured on a discrete time grid. Our approach is based on a generative mixture model that allows non-linear time…