相关论文: Bayesian models for prediction of the set-differen…

Bayesian regression games are a special class of two-player general-sum Bayesian games in which the learner is partially informed about the adversary's objective through a Bayesian prior. This formulation captures the uncertainty in regard…

We consider the task of determining a football player's ability for a given event type, for example, scoring a goal. We propose an interpretable Bayesian model which is fit using variational inference methods. We implement a Poisson model…

Clinical trials often evaluate multiple outcome variables to form a comprehensive picture of the effects of a new treatment. The resulting multidimensional insight contributes to clinically relevant and efficient decision-making about…

Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game…

Numerous statistics have been proposed for the measure of offensive ability in major league baseball. While some of these measures may offer moderate predictive power in certain situations, it is unclear which simple offensive metrics are…

This research is intended to accomplish two goals: The first goal is to curate a large and information rich dataset that contains crucial and succinct summaries on the players' actions and positions and the back-and-forth travel patterns of…

It is common to be interested in rankings or order relationships among entities. In complex settings where one does not directly measure a univariate statistic upon which to base ranks, such inferences typically rely on statistical models…

Predicting the results of soccer matches is of great interest. This is not only due to the popularity of the sport and the joy of private "betting rounds", but also due to the large sports betting market. Where previously expert knowledge…

We want to select the best systems out of a given set of systems (or rank them) with respect to their expected performance. The systems allow random observations only and we assume that the joint observation of the systems has a…

In this paper we briefly review the main methodological aspects concerned with the application of the Bayesian approach to model choice and model averaging in the context of variable selection in regression models. This includes prior…

Soccer is undeniably the most popular sport world-wide and everyone from general managers and coaching staff to fans and media are interested in evaluating players' performance. Metrics applied successfully in other sports, such as the…

We consider the task of determining the number of chances a soccer team creates, along with the composite nature of each chance-the players involved and the locations on the pitch of the assist and the chance. We propose an interpretable…

This study employs Bayesian methodologies to explore the influence of player or positional factors in predicting the probability of a shot resulting in a goal, measured by the expected goals (xG) metric. Utilising publicly available data…

A widely used method to create a continuous representation of a discrete data-set is regression analysis. When the regression model is not based on a mathematical description of the physics underlying the data, heuristic techniques play a…

Structural equation models (SEMs) are commonly used to study the structural relationship between observed variables and latent constructs. Recently, Bayesian fitting procedures for SEMs have received more attention thanks to their potential…

We consider the problem of choosing between parametric models for a discrete observable, taking a Bayesian approach in which the within-model prior distributions are allowed to be improper. In order to avoid the ambiguity in the marginal…

The availability of data from multiple heterogeneous environments has motivated methods that remain reliable under distributional shifts. When the joint distribution of response and predictors varies across environments, the response may…

We develop variational regularization methods which leverage sparsity-promoting priors to solve severely ill posed inverse problems defined on the 3D ball (i.e. the solid sphere). Our method solves the problem natively on the ball and thus…

We present an efficient, principled, and interpretable technique for inferring module assignments and for identifying the optimal number of modules in a given network. We show how several existing methods for finding modules can be…

Most of the consistency analyses of Bayesian procedures for variable selection in regression refer to pairwise consistency, that is, consistency of Bayes factors. However, variable selection in regression is carried out in a given class of…