相关论文: Forecasting Fertility with Parametric Mixture Mode…

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that…

The histogram method is a powerful non-parametric approach for estimating the probability density function of a continuous variable. But the construction of a histogram, compared to the parametric approaches, demands a large number of…

1. Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Recently developed N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate demographic…

We present a new methodology to model total abundance by merging count data information from surveys with different sampling protocols. The proposed methods are used for data from national breeding bird monitoring programs in Norway and…

Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack…

This paper is concerned with forecasting probability density functions. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral; thus, they do not constitute a vector space. Implementing unconstrained functional time-series…

Statistical post-processing techniques are now widely used to correct systematic biases and errors in calibration of ensemble forecasts obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. A standard approach is the ensemble…

Big spatio-temporal datasets, available through both open and administrative data sources, offer significant potential for social science research. The magnitude of the data allows for increased resolution and analysis at individual level.…

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

This paper introduces a comprehensive model for age estimation, verification, and comparability, offering a comprehensive solution for a wide range of applications. It employs advanced learning techniques to understand age distribution and…

Modeling large dependent datasets in modern time series analysis is a crucial research area. One effective approach to handle such datasets is to transform the observations into density functions and apply statistical methods for further…

We consider determining change points in a time series of age-specific mortality and fertility curves observed over time. We propose two detection methods for identifying these change points. The first method uses a functional cumulative…

In this paper, we introduce a general numerical method to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of multi-group, age-structured, population models with a finite age span. To provide complete flexibility in the definition of…

This paper develops a systematic parametric method for analyzing stochastic systems under volatility uncertainty within the $G$-expectation framework. Leveraging the dual representation of the $G$-expectation as a supremum over a family of…

Accurate prediction of crop states (e.g., phenology stages and cold hardiness) is essential for timely farm management decisions such as irrigation, fertilization, and canopy management to optimize crop yield and quality. While traditional…

Functional data analysis is proved to be useful in many scientific applications. The physical process is observed as curves and often there are several curves observed due to multiple subjects, providing the replicates in statistical sense.…

We discuss functional clustering procedures for nested designs, where multiple curves are collected for each subject in the study. We start by considering the application of standard functional clustering tools to this problem, which leads…

We consider the task of forecasting an infinite sequence of future observations based on some number of past observations, where the probability measure generating the observations is "suspected" to satisfy one or more of a set of…

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…