相关论文: Dynamic principal component regression for forecas…

In areas of application, including actuarial science and demography, it is increasingly common to consider a time series of curves; an example of this is age-specific mortality rates observed over a period of years. Given that age can be…

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status. In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not…

We address the problem of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series through a two-fold dimension reduction procedure. The difficulty of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series lies in the curse of dimensionality. In…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social…

We propose a nonstationary functional time series forecasting method with an application to age-specific mortality rates observed over the years. The method begins by taking the first-order differencing and estimates its long-run covariance…

Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper…

We study the modeling and forecasting of high-dimensional functional time series, which can be temporally dependent and cross-sectionally correlated. We implement a functional analysis of variance (FANOVA) to decompose high-dimensional…

In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…

We study the modeling and forecasting of high-dimensional functional time series (HDFTS), which can be cross-sectionally correlated and temporally dependent. We introduce a decomposition of the HDFTS into two distinct components: a…

Like density functions, period life-table death counts are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus live in a constrained nonlinear space. Implementing established modelling and forecasting methods without obeying these…

We study the importance of group structure in grouped functional time series. Due to the non-uniqueness of group structure, we investigate different disaggregation structures in grouped functional time series. We address a practical…

Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…

This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal…

A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…

Univariate time series often take the form of a collection of curves observed sequentially over time. Examples of these include hourly ground-level ozone concentration curves. These curves can be viewed as a time series of functions…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

Functional principal component analysis has been shown to be invaluable for revealing variation modes of longitudinal outcomes, which serves as important building blocks for forecasting and model building. Decades of research have advanced…

Modelling and forecasting homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries could lead to improvements in long-term forecasting. Data fed into joint models are often grouped according to nominal attributes, such as geographic…