相关论文: Probabilistic Projections of Baseline 21st Century…
We propose a new statistical reduced complexity climate model. The centerpiece of the model consists of a set of physical equations for the global climate system which we show how to cast in non-linear state space form. The parameters in…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p,…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…
To analyze climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models - climate emulators. We propose a generic and transparent calibration and evaluation strategy for these climate emulators that is based on Coupled…
Large ensembles of climate projections are essential for characterizing uncertainty in future climate and extreme weather events, yet computational constraints of numerical climate models limit ensemble sizes to a small number of…
The initial Climate-Extended Risk Model (CERM) addresses the estimate of climate-related financial risk embedded within a bank loan portfolio, through a climatic extension of the Basel II IRB model. It uses a Gaussian copula model…
Forecast systems in science and technology are increasingly moving beyond point prediction toward methods that produce full predictive distributions of future outcomes y, conditional on high-dimensional and complex sequences of inputs x.…
The continuous rise in CO2 emission into the environment is one of the most crucial issues facing the whole world. Many countries are making crucial decisions to control their carbon footprints to escape some of their catastrophic outcomes.…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have emerged as a critical issue with profound impacts on the environment, human health, and the global economy. The steady increase in atmospheric CO2 levels, largely due to human activities such as burning…
Emissions pathways used in climate policy analysis are often derived from integrated assessment models. However, such emissions pathways do not typically include climate feedbacks on socioeconomic systems and by extension do not consider…
The sixth assessment of the international panel on climate change (IPCC) states that "cumulative net CO2 emissions over the last decade (2010-2019) are about the same size as the 11 remaining carbon budget likely to limit warming to 1.5C…
Understanding how climate and innovation policies perform during socio-technical transitions remains a central challenge in innovation studies. Empirical analyses of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions continue to…
We estimate cumulative CO2 emissions during the period 2000 to 2050 from developed and developing countries based on the empirical relationship between CO2 per capita emissions (due to fossil fuel combustion and cement production) and…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
Parameters in climate models are usually calibrated manually, exploiting only small subsets of the available data. This precludes both optimal calibration and quantification of uncertainties. Traditional Bayesian calibration methods that…
The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, the global surface may warm from 1.3 to 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100,…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
Against the backdrop of ongoing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, accurate prediction of enterprise carbon emission trends constitutes an essential foundation for energy structure optimization and low-carbon transformation…
Reducing Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission is vital at both global and national levels, given their significant role in exacerbating climate change. CO2 emission, stemming from a variety of industrial and economic activities, are major…