相关论文: Records for the moving average of a time series

The use of moving averages is pervasive in macroeconomic monitoring, particularly for tracking noisy series such as inflation. The choice of the look-back window is crucial. Too long of a moving average is not timely enough when faced with…

Recently, it has been conjectured that the statistics of extremes is of relevance for a large class of correlated system. For certain probability densities this predicts the characteristic large $x$ fall-off behavior $f(x)\sim\exp (-a…

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely…

We focus on the statistics of word occurrences and of the waiting times between such occurrences in Blogs. Due to the heterogeneity of words' frequencies, the empirical analysis is performed by studying classes of "frequently-equivalent"…

We study extreme value statistics of multiple sequences of random variables. For each sequence with N variables, independently drawn from the same distribution, the running maximum is defined as the largest variable to date. We compare the…

We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to…

Given a random process $x(\tau)$ which undergoes stochastic resetting at a constant rate $r$ to a position drawn from a distribution ${\cal P}(x)$, we consider a sequence of dynamical observables $A_1, \dots, A_n$ associated to the…

Record numbers are basic statistics in random walks, whose deviation principles are not very clear so far. In this paper, the asymptotic probabilities of large and moderate deviations for numbers of weak records in right continuous or left…

We analyze the question whether sliding window time averages applied to stationary increment processes converge to a limit in probability. The question centers on averages, correlations, and densities constructed via time averages of the…

World record setting has long attracted public interest and scientific investigation. Extremal records summarize the limits of the space explored by a process, and the historical progression of a record sheds light on the underlying…

We consider a random walk of $n$ steps starting at $x_0=0$ with a double exponential (Laplace) jump distribution. We compute exactly the distribution $p_{k,n}(\Delta)$ of the gap $d_{k,n}$ between the $k^{\rm th}$ and $(k+1)^{\rm th}$…

In this study, the cumulative effect of the empirical probability distribution of a random variable is identified as a factor that amplifies the occurrence of extreme events in datasets. To quantify this observation, a corresponding…

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot…

We study the dynamical aspects of the top rank statistics of particles, performing Brownian motions on a half-line, which are ranked by their distance from the origin. For this purpose, we introduce an observable that we call the overlap…

A length dependence of the effective mobility in the form of a power law, B ~ L^(1-1/alpha) is observed in dispersive transport in amorphous substances, with 0 < \alpha < 1. We deduce this behavior as a simple consequence of the statistical…

Distribution-free prediction sets play a pivotal role in uncertainty quantification for complex statistical models. Their validity hinges on reliable calibration data, which may not be readily available as real-world environments often…

We consider a simple model for active random walk with general temporal correlations, and investigate the shape of the probability distribution function of the displacement during a short time interval. We find that under certain conditions…

We consider exponential large deviations estimates for unbounded observables on uniformly expanding dynamical systems. We show that uniform expansion does not imply the existence of a rate function for unbounded observables no matter the…

One of the key clues to consider rainfall as a self-organized critical phenomenon is the existence of power-law distributions for rain-event sizes. We have studied the problem of universality in the exponents of these distributions by means…

A class of generalized exclusion processes parametrized by the maximal occupancy, $k\geq 1$, is investigated. For these processes with symmetric nearest-neighbor hopping, we compute the diffusion coefficient and show that it is independent…