相关论文: Can Bayes Factors "Prove" the Null Hypothesis?

Many measurements at collider experiments study physics candidates that are a subset of a collision event. The presence of multiple such candidates in a given event can cause raw biases which are large compared to typical statistical…

In Bayesian statistics the precise point-null hypothesis $\theta=\theta_0$ can be tested by checking whether $\theta_0$ is contained in a credible set. This permits testing of $\theta=\theta_0$ without having to put prior probabilities on…

In the simple vs composite hypothesis test with a proper prior, the Bayes Factor (BF) is shown to be the posterior mean of the Likelihood Ratio (LR). Therefore, the posterior standard deviation of the LR or rather its posterior cumulative…

It is commonly-accepted wisdom that more information is better, and that information should never be ignored. Here we argue, using both a Bayesian and a non-Bayesian analysis, that in some situations you are better off ignoring information…

It is commonly-accepted wisdom that more information is better, and that information should never be ignored. Here we argue, using both a Bayesian and a non-Bayesian analysis, that in some situations you are better off ignoring information…

While gravitational waves have not yet been measured directly, data analysis from detection experiments commonly includes an upper limit statement. Such upper limits may be derived via a frequentist or Bayesian approach; the theoretical…

Significance tests are probably the most extended form of inference in empirical research, and significance is often interpreted as providing greater informational content than non-significance. In this article we show, however, that…

There has been a tremendous methodological development of Bayes factors for hypothesis testing in the social and behavioral sciences, and related fields. This development is due to the flexibility of the Bayes factor for testing multiple…

Many practical studies rely on hypothesis testing procedures applied to data sets with missing information. An important part of the analysis is to determine the impact of the missing data on the performance of the test, and this can be…

In statistical inference, uncertainty is unknown and all models are wrong. That is to say, a person who makes a statistical model and a prior distribution is simultaneously aware that both are fictional candidates. To study such cases,…

How to sample high quality negative instances from unlabeled data, i.e., negative sampling, is important for training implicit collaborative filtering and contrastive learning models. Although previous studies have proposed some approaches…

We study the detection capability of the weak-value amplification on the basis of the statistical hypothesis testing. We propose a reasonable testing method in the physical and statistical senses to find that the weak measurement with the…

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…

The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox displays how the use of a p-value (or number of standard deviations z) in a frequentist hypothesis test can lead to an inference that is radically different from that of a Bayesian hypothesis test in the form…

For the ANOVA model, we propose a new g-prior based Bayes factor without integral representation, with reasonable model selection consistency for any asymptotic situations (either number of levels of the factor and/or number of replication…

The Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hypotheses was presented by Pereira and Stern [Entropy 1(4) (1999) 99-110] as a Bayesian alternative instead of the traditional significance test using p-value. The FBST is based on the…

When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the parameters given the data. Some might worry that conditional…

A goal in the forensic interpretation of scientific evidence is to make an inference about the source of a trace of unknown origin. The evidence is composed of the following three elements: (a) the trace of unknown origin, (b) a sample from…

A new empirical Bayes approach to variable selection in the context of generalized linear models is developed. The proposed algorithm scales to situations in which the number of putative explanatory variables is very large, possibly much…

The issue addressed in this paper is that of testing for common breaks across or within equations of a multivariate system. Our framework is very general and allows integrated regressors and trends as well as stationary regressors. The null…