相关论文: An anisotropic model for global climate data

Machine learning models have shown great success in predicting weather up to two weeks ahead, outperforming process-based benchmarks. However, existing approaches mostly focus on the prediction task, and do not incorporate the necessary…

Quantifying uncertainty in future climate projections is hindered by the prohibitive computational cost of running physical climate models, which severely limits the availability of training data. We propose a data-efficient framework for…

Gaussian process regression is widely used because of its ability to provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and handle small or sparse datasets. However, it struggles with high-dimensional data. One possible way to scale this…

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program is a U.S. Department of Energy project that collects meteorological observations at several locations around the world in order to study how weather processes affect global climate change. As…

We present an analytical closed form expression, which gives a good approximate propagator for diffusion on the sphere. Our formula is the spherical counterpart of the Gaussian propagator for diffusion on the plane. While the analytical…

Atmospheric inverse modelling is a method for reconstructing historical fluxes of green-house gas between land and atmosphere, using observed atmospheric concentrations and an atmospheric tracer transport model. The small number of observed…

For many survey-based spatial modelling problems, responses are observed as spatially aggregated over survey regions due to limited resources. Covariates, from weather models and satellite imageries, can be observed at many different…

Quasi-periodicity refers to a pattern in a function where it appears periodic but has evolving amplitudes over time. This is often the case in practical settings such as the modeling of case counts of infectious disease or the carbon…

The Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily database contains, among other variables, daily maximum and minimum temperatures from weather stations around the globe. It is long known that climatological summary statistics based on daily…

In the era of climate change, the distribution of climate variables evolves with changes not limited to the mean value. Consequently, clustering algorithms based on central tendency could produce misleading results when used to summarize…

Unstructured data from diverse sources, such as social media and aerial imagery, can provide valuable up-to-date information for intelligent situation assessment. Mining these different information sources could bring major benefits to…

We propose a set of new statistics which can be extracted out of the angular distribution of the Fourier transform of the temperature anisotropies in the small field limit. They quantify generic non-Gaussian structure and complement the…

We describe a new approach allowing for systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events, in near-real time. The method is purposely designed to facilitate its implementation at meteorological centers by relying on data…

In the analysis of multivariate spatial and univariate spatio-temporal data, it is commonly recognized that asymmetric dependence may exist, which can be addressed using an asymmetric (matrix or space-time, respectively) covariance function…

Environmental and climate processes are often distributed over large space-time domains. Their complexity and the amount of available data make modelling and analysis a challenging task. Statistical modelling of environment and climate data…

Spatial maps of extreme precipitation are crucial in flood protection. With the aim of producing maps of precipitation return levels, we propose a novel approach to model a collection of spatially distributed time series where the…

We propose a new method for simplification of Gaussian process (GP) models by projecting the information contained in the full encompassing model and selecting a reduced number of variables based on their predictive relevance. Our results…

In this study, we introduce a novel analytical Gaussian Process (GP) cosmography methodology, leveraging the differentiable properties of GPs to derive key cosmological quantities analytically. Our approach combines cosmic chronometer (CC)…

We develop a new efficient methodology for Bayesian global sensitivity analysis for large-scale multivariate data. The focus is on computationally demanding models with correlated variables. A multivariate Gaussian process is used as a…

A topological computation method, called the MGSTD method, is applied to time-series data obtained from meteorological measurement. The method gives decomposition of the dynamics into invariant sets and gradient-like transitions between…