相关论文: Estimating Real Log Canonical Thresholds

In the information-based paradigm of inference, model selection is performed by selecting the candidate model with the best estimated predictive performance. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the estimate of the…

Bayesian diagnostic classification models (Bayesian DCMs) are effective for diagnosing students' skills. Research on the evaluation of relative model fit indices for DCMs using Bayesian estimation, however, is deficient. This study…

The Bayesian and Akaike information criteria aim at finding a good balance between under- and over-fitting. They are extensively used every day by practitioners. Yet we contend they suffer from at least two afflictions: their penalty…

In multivariate extreme value analysis, the estimation of the dependence structure in extremes is demanding, especially in the context of high-dimensional data. Therefore, a common approach is to reduce the model dimension by considering…

We deal with a model selection problem for structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables for diffusion processes. Based on the asymptotic expansion of the marginal quasi-log likelihood, we propose two types of quasi-Bayesian…

The marginal likelihood, or evidence, plays a central role in Bayesian model selection, yet remains notoriously challenging to compute in likelihood-free settings. While Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) techniques such as Sequential Neural…

We consider the use of randomised forward models and log-likelihoods within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Such random approximations to the exact forward model or log-likelihood arise naturally when a computationally expensive…

Model selection is the problem of distinguishing competing models, perhaps featuring different numbers of parameters. The statistics literature contains two distinct sets of tools, those based on information theory such as the Akaike…

Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI) attempts to address model misspecification in a standard Bayesian setup by tempering the likelihood. The likelihood is raised to a fractional power, called the learning rate, which reduces its importance…

Computing the marginal likelihood (ML) of a model requires marginalizing out all of the parameters and latent variables, a difficult high-dimensional summation or integration problem. To make matters worse, it is often hard to measure the…

We consider the problem of estimating a parameter associated to a Bayesian inverse problem. Treating the unknown initial condition as a nuisance parameter, typically one must resort to a numerical approximation of gradient of the…

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are methods for estimating pointwise out-of-sample prediction accuracy from a fitted Bayesian model using the log-likelihood evaluated at the…

We introduce real log canonical threshold and real jumping numbers for real algebraic functions. A real jumping number is a root of the $b$-function up to a sign if its difference with the minimal one is less than 1. The real log canonical…

Bayesian model selection with improper priors is not well-defined because of the dependence of the marginal likelihood on the arbitrary scaling constants of the within-model prior densities. We show how this problem can be evaded by…

This paper introduces Kernel-based Information Criterion (KIC) for model selection in regression analysis. The novel kernel-based complexity measure in KIC efficiently computes the interdependency between parameters of the model using a…

We consider a sparse linear regression model, when the number of available predictors, $p$, is much larger than the sample size, $n$, and the number of non-zero coefficients, $p_0$, is small. To choose the regression model in this…

Marginal likelihood, also known as model evidence, is a fundamental quantity in Bayesian statistics. It is used for model selection using Bayes factors or for empirical Bayes tuning of prior hyper-parameters. Yet, the calculation of…

We consider the problem of estimating a temperature-dependent thermal conductivity model (curve) from temperature measurements. We apply a Bayesian estimation approach that takes into account measurement errors and limited prior information…

In the problem of selecting variables in a multivariate linear regression model, we derive new Bayesian information criteria based on a prior mixing a smooth distribution and a delta distribution. Each of them can be interpreted as a fusion…

Multilevel linear models allow flexible statistical modelling of complex data with different levels of stratification. Identifying the most appropriate model from the large set of possible candidates is a challenging problem. In the…