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In observational studies, treatments are typically not randomized and therefore estimated treatment effects may be subject to confounding bias. The instrumental variable (IV) design plays the role of a quasi-experimental handle since the IV…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-08-30 Lan Liu , Wang Miao , Baoluo Sun , James Robins , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

This paper considers identification and estimation of causal effect parameters from participating in a binary treatment in a difference in differences (DID) setup when the parallel trends assumption holds after conditioning on observed…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-06-25 Carolina Caetano , Brantly Callaway , Stroud Payne , Hugo Sant'Anna Rodrigues

Trial engagement effects are effects of trial participation on the outcome that are not mediated by treatment assignment. Most work on extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-23 Lawson Ung , Tyler J. VanderWeele , Issa J. Dahabreh

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-20 Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are widely used in observational studies to estimate the causal effect of time-varying treatments. Despite its popularity, limited attention has been paid to summarizing the treatment history in the outcome…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-18 Jiewen Liu , Todd A. Miano , Stephen Griffiths , Michael G. S. Shashaty , Wei Yang

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large…

In randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that focus on time-to-event outcomes, intercurrent events can arise in two ways: as semi-competing events, which modify the hazard of the primary outcome events, or as competing events, which make the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-26 Yuhao Deng , Shasha Han , Xiao-Hua Zhou

To draw real-world evidence about the comparative effectiveness of multiple time-varying treatments on patient survival, we develop a joint marginal structural survival model and a novel weighting strategy to account for time-varying…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-08 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Himanshu Joshi , Erick Scott , Fan Li

We use the concept of excursions for the prediction of random variables without any moment existence assumptions. To do so, an excursion metric on the space of random variables is defined which appears to be a kind of a weighted…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-09-07 Vitalii Makogin , Evgeny Spodarev

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-18 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

The use and development of mobile interventions are experiencing rapid growth. In "just-in-time" mobile interventions, treatments are provided via a mobile device and they are intended to help an individual make healthy decisions "in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-23 Peng Liao , Predrag Klasnja , Ambuj Tewari , Susan A. Murphy

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the standard for evaluating the effectiveness of clinical interventions. To address the limitations of RCTs on real-world populations, we developed a methodology that uses a large observational…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-21 Panayiotis Petousis , David Gordon , Susanne B. Nicholas , Alex A. T. Bui

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have long been the gold standard for causal inference across various fields, including business analysis, economic studies, sociology, clinical research, and network learning. The primary advantage of…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-08-23 Carol Liu

Technological advancements have made it possible to deliver mobile health interventions to individuals. A novel framework that has emerged from such advancements is the just-in-time adaptive intervention (JITAI), which aims to suggest the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-10 Jing Xu , Xiaoxi Yan , Caroline Figueroa , Joseph Jay Williams , Bibhas Chakraborty

Joint models have proven to be an effective approach for uncovering potentially hidden connections between various types of outcomes, mainly continuous, time-to-event, and binary. Typically, longitudinal continuous outcomes are…

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are pivotal in generating internally valid estimates with minimal assumptions, serving as a cornerstone for researchers dedicated to advancing causal inference methods. However, extending these findings…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-28 Melody Y Huang , Harsh Parikh

Behavioral science researchers have shown strong interest in disaggregating within-person relations from between-person differences (stable traits) using longitudinal data. In this paper, we propose a method of within-person variability…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-08 Satoshi Usami

Estimating the causal effect of a time-varying public health intervention on the course of an infectious disease epidemic is an important methodological challenge. During the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers attempted to estimate the effects…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-08-20 Yichi Zhang , Forrest W. Crawford

Predicting which action (treatment) will lead to a better outcome is a central task in decision support systems. To build a prediction model in real situations, learning from biased observational data is a critical issue due to the lack of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-06-11 Akira Tanimoto , Tomoya Sakai , Takashi Takenouchi , Hisashi Kashima