相关论文: Comparison Between Bayesian and Frequentist Tail P…

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner…

Estimating extreme quantiles is an important task in many applications, including financial risk management and climatology. More important than estimating the quantile itself is to insure zero coverage error, which implies the quantile…

An explicit upper bound on the tail probabilities for the normalized Rademacher sums is given. This bound, which is best possible in a certain sense, is asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding tail probability of the standard normal…

Bias reduction in tail estimation has received considerable interest in extreme value analysis. Estimation methods that minimize the bias while keeping the mean squared error (MSE) under control, are especially useful when applying…

Consider the Gaussian sequence model under the additional assumption that a fixed fraction of the means is known. We study the problem of variance estimation from a frequentist Bayesian perspective. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE)…

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

We derive the tail inequalities between two random variables starting from inequalities between its moment, or more generally between its Lebesgue-Riesz norms, which holds true on certain sets of parameters. We consider some applications…

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from uncertainty concerning the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardless of its probability. The problem explains "Black Swan"…

We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…

We investigate the relation between frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Namely, we find the "frequentist" Bayes prior \pi_{f}(\lambda,x_{obs}) = -\frac{\int_{-\infty}^{x_{obs}}\frac{\partial f(x,\lambda)}{\partial…

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior…

Signal processing makes extensive use of point estimators and accompanying error bounds. These work well up until the likelihood function has two or more high peaks. When it is important for an estimator to remain reliable, it becomes…

The intuitive reasoning of physicists in conditions of uncertainty is closer to the Bayesian approach than to the frequentist ideas taught at University and which are considered the reference framework for handling statistical problems. The…

Statistics comes in two main flavors: frequentist and Bayesian. For historical and technical reasons, frequentist statistics have traditionally dominated empirical data analysis, and certainly remain prevalent in empirical software…

Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an…

We prove that the tail probabilities of sums of independent uniform random variables, up to a multiplicative constant, are dominated by the Gaussian tail with matching variance and find the sharp constant for such stochastic domination.

Asmussen and Lehtomaa [Distinguishing log-concavity from heavy tails. Risks 5(10), 2017] introduced an interesting function $g$ which is able to distinguish between log-convex and log-concave tail behaviour of distributions, and proposed a…