相关论文: Why Are the ARIMA and SARIMA not Sufficient

In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval $(a,b)$ following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The…

In this paper, five different deep learning models are being compared for predicting travel time. These models are autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, recurrent neural network (RNN) model, autoregressive (AR) model,…

We propose a panel ARMA-GARCH model to capture the dynamics of large panel data with $N$ individuals over $T$ time periods. For this model, we provide a two-step estimation procedure to estimate the ARMA parameters and GARCH parameters…

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…

Time series autoregression (AR) is a classical tool for modeling auto-correlations and periodic structures in real-world systems. We revisit this model from an interpretable machine learning perspective by introducing sparse autoregression…

Training models with discrete latent variables is challenging due to the difficulty of estimating the gradients accurately. Much of the recent progress has been achieved by taking advantage of continuous relaxations of the system, which are…

The simulation of the continuation of a given time series is useful for many practical applications. But no standard procedure for this task is suggested in the literature. It is therefore demonstrated how to use the seasonal ARIMA process…

Among the various procedures used to detect potential changes in a stochastic process the moving sum algorithms are very popular due to their intuitive appeal and good statistical performance. One of the important design parameters of a…

Time series forecasting is an important problem across many domains, playing a crucial role in multiple real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a forecasting architecture that combines deep autoregressive models with a Spectral…

The paper examines the problem of representing the dynamics of low order autoregressive (AR) models with time varying (TV) coefficients. The existing literature computes the forecasts of the series from a recursion relation. Instead, we…

This paper develops a rigorous functional-analytic framework for the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator, a classical tool in technical analysis. We show that MACD, commonly defined as the difference between two moving…

We study the predictive power of autoregressive moving average models when forecasting demand in two shared computational networks, PlanetLab and Tycoon. Demand in these networks is very volatile, and predictive techniques to plan usage in…

We propose a nonparametric method for detecting nonlinear causal relationship within a set of multidimensional discrete time series, by using sparse additive models (SpAMs). We show that, when the input to the SpAM is a $\beta$-mixing time…

In this paper, we present the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator for autoregressive (AR for short) models subject to Markovian changes in regime under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily…

Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient…

Time series forecasting has important applications in financial analysis, weather forecasting, and traffic management. However, existing deep learning models are limited in processing non-stationary time series data because they cannot…

The non-stationary evolution of observable quantities in complex systems can frequently be described as a juxtaposition of quasi-stationary spells. Given that standard theoretical and data analysis approaches usually rely on the assumption…

Observations in data which are significantly different from its neighbouring points but cannot be classified as noise are known as anomalies or outliers. These anomalies are a cause of concern and a timely warning about their presence could…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…

A persistent paradox in time-series forecasting is that structurally simple MLP and linear models often outperform high-capacity Transformers. We argue that this gap arises from a mismatch in the sequence-modeling primitive: while many…