相关论文: Bayesian prediction of jumps in large panels of ti…
We consider a stochastic volatility model with jumps where the underlying asset price is driven by the process sum of a 2-dimensional Brownian motion and a 2-dimensional compensated Poisson process. The market is incomplete, resulting in…
In the option valuation literature, the shortcomings of one factor stochastic volatility models have traditionally been addressed by adding jumps to the stock price process. An alternate approach in the context of option pricing and…
This analysis derives the maximum likelihood estimator and applies Bayesian inference to model geometric Brownian motion, incorporating jump diffusion to account for sudden market shifts. The Bayesian approach is implemented using Markov…
We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…
Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…
Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a bivariate jump diffusion. A state space representation is used to link observed returns, plus nonparametric measures of…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…
Many time series are effectively generated by a combination of deterministic continuous flows along with discrete jumps sparked by stochastic events. However, we usually do not have the equation of motion describing the flows, or how they…
We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…
Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew…
We consider the dynamics of a 1D system evolving according to a deterministic drift and randomly forced by two types of jumps processes, one representing an external, uncontrolled forcing and the other one a control that instantaneously…
We consider the problem of detecting jumps in an otherwise smoothly evolving trend whilst the covariance and higher-order structures of the system can experience both smooth and abrupt changes over time. The number of jump points is allowed…
Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…
Parametric estimation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been a subject of intense studies already for several decades. The Heston model for instance is driven by two coupled SDEs and is often used in financial mathematics for…
We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each…
This paper develops forecasting methodology and application of new classes of dynamic models for time series of non-negative counts. Novel univariate models synthesise dynamic generalized linear models for binary and conditionally Poisson…
We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…
This paper models stochastic process of price time series of CSI 300 index in Chinese financial market, analyzes volatility characteristics of intraday high-frequency price data. In the new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model,…
Investigate the stochastic dynamic non-linear system with the Wiener and the Poisson perturbations. For such systems we construct the program control with probability one, which allows this system to move on the given trajectory. In this…
News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double…