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Diagnosing convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo is crucial and remains an essentially unsolved problem. Among the most popular methods, the potential scale reduction factor, commonly named $\hat{R}$, is an indicator that monitors the…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-03-06 Théo Moins , Julyan Arbel , Anne Dutfoy , Stéphane Girard

Recent developments in parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms allow us to run thousands of chains almost as quickly as a single chain, using hardware accelerators such as GPUs. While each chain still needs to forget its initial…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are frequently used to perform inference under a Bayesian modeling framework. Convergence diagnostics, such as traceplots, the Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor, and effective sample…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has transformed Bayesian model inference over the past three decades: mainly because of this, Bayesian inference is now a workhorse of applied scientists. Under general conditions, MCMC sampling converges…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-20 Ben Lambert , Aki Vehtari

Gelman and Rubin's (1992) convergence diagnostic is one of the most popular methods for terminating a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Since the seminal paper, researchers have developed sophisticated methods for estimating variance…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-09-17 Dootika Vats , Christina Knudson

A long-standing gap exists between the theoretical analysis of Markov chain Monte Carlo convergence, which is often based on statistical divergences, and the diagnostics used in practice. We introduce the first general convergence…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-10-16 Adrien Corenflos , Hai-Dang Dau

Convergence diagnosis for Markov chain Monte Carlo is a matter of fundamental importance in computational statistics: it determines the resources allocated to a particular sampling problem and influences the practitioner's view of the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-05-14 Buu Phan , Gergely Flamich , Ashish Khisti , Shahab Asoodeh

Modern computational advances have enabled easy parallel implementations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, almost all work in estimating the variance of Monte Carlo averages, including the efficient batch means (BM) estimator,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-23 Kushagra Gupta , Dootika Vats

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

统计计算 · 统计学 2008-07-22 Ioana A. Cosma , Masoud Asgharian

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a popular class of statistical methods for simulating autocorrelated draws from target distributions, including posterior distributions in Bayesian analysis. An important consideration in using simulated…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-06-16 Benjamin E. Deonovic , Brian J. Smith

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most useful approaches to scientific computing because of its flexible construction, ease of use and generality. Indeed, MCMC is indispensable for performing Bayesian analysis. Two critical…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-10-18 Vivekananda Roy

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-05 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , Colin Fox , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-08-03 Matias Quiroz , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn

We present a new framework to derandomise certain Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. As in MCMC, we first reduce counting problems to sampling from a sequence of marginal distributions. For the latter task, we introduce a method…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2023-04-05 Weiming Feng , Heng Guo , Chunyang Wang , Jiaheng Wang , Yitong Yin

In many hierarchical inverse problems, not only do we want to estimate high- or infinite-dimensional model parameters in the parameter-to-observable maps, but we also have to estimate hyperparameters that represent critical assumptions in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-02-18 Johnathan Bardsley , Tiangang Cui

In this paper, we address technical difficulties that arise when applying Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to hierarchical models designed to perform clustering in the space of latent parameters of subject-wise generative models.…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2020-12-15 Yu Yao , Klaas E. Stephan

Finding effective ways to exploit parallel computing to accelerate Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is an important problem in Bayesian computation and related disciplines. In this paper, we consider the zeroth-order setting where the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-01-28 Francesco Pozza , Giacomo Zanella

Brute force cross-validation (CV) is a method for predictive assessment and model selection that is general and applicable to a wide range of Bayesian models. Naive or `brute force' CV approaches are often too computationally costly for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-17 Alex Cooper , Aki Vehtari , Catherine Forbes , Lauren Kennedy , Dan Simpson

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

In many computational problems, using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be prohibitively time-consuming. We propose MCMC-Net, a simple yet efficient way to accelerate MCMC via neural networks. The key idea of our approach is to…

数值分析 · 数学 2025-09-16 Sudeb Majee , Anuj Abhishek , Thilo Strauss , Taufiquar Khan
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