相关论文: Hidden tail chains and recurrence equations for de…

We study the rate of convergence of the Markov chain on $S_n$ which starts with a random $(n-k)$-cycle for a fixed $k \geq 1$, followed by random transpositions. The convergence to the stationary distribution turns out to be of order $n$.…

The possibilities of the use of the coefficient of variation over a high threshold in tail modelling are discussed. The paper also considers multiple threshold tests for a generalized Pareto distribution, together with a threshold selection…

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric…

We prove the existence of limiting distributions for a large class of Markov chains on a general state space in a random environment. We assume suitable versions of the standard drift and minorization conditions. In particular, the system…

We prove that under mild positivity assumptions the entropy rate of a hidden Markov chain varies analytically as a function of the underlying Markov chain parameters. A general principle to determine the domain of analyticity is stated. An…

A divide-and-conquer approach to analyzing Markov chains (MCs) is not utilized as widely as it could be, despite its potential benefits. One primary reason for this is the fact that most MC decomposition approaches involve a complex and…

We analyze the properties of degree-preserving Markov chains based on elementary edge switchings in undirected and directed graphs. We give exact yet simple formulas for the mobility of a graph (the number of possible moves) in terms of its…

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

In this paper we are concerned with the analysis of heavy-tailed data when a portion of the extreme values is unavailable. This research was motivated by an analysis of the degree distributions in a large social network. The degree…

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

We develop two models for Bayesian estimation and selection in high-order, discrete-state Markov chains. Both are based on the mixture transition distribution, which constructs a transition probability tensor with additive mixing of…

We study a random walk on a complex of finitely many half-lines joined at a common origin; jumps are heavy-tailed and of two types, either one-sided (towards the origin) or two-sided (symmetric). Transmission between half-lines via the…

We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

We study large deviations asymptotics for a class of unbounded additive functionals, interpreted as normalized accumulated areas, of one-dimensional Langevin diffusions with sub-linear gradient drifts. Our results provide parametric…

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

We consider periodic Markov chains with absorption. Applying to iterates of this periodic Markov chain criteria for the exponential convergence of conditional distributions of aperiodic absorbed Markov chains, we obtain exponential…

To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees, Segers and Warcho{\l} [Extremes (2015) 18, 369--402] proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended…

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

This paper presents a novel theoretical Monte Carlo Markov chain procedure in the framework of graphs. It specifically deals with the construction of a Markov chain whose empirical distribution converges to a given reference one. The Markov…

Focusing on stochastic systems arising in mean-field models, the systems under consideration belong to the class of switching diffusions, in which continuous dynamics and discrete events coexist and interact. The discrete events are modeled…