相关论文: Integer-Valued Functional Data Analysis for Measle…

Measles is considered as a highly contagious disease that leads to serious complications around the world. Thus, the paper determined the trend and the five-year forecasted data of the Measles in the Philippines. This study utilized the…

We define data analyses to monitor a change in R, the average number of secondary cases caused by a typical infected individual. The input dataset consists of incident cases partitioned into outbreaks, each initiated from a single index…

This paper develops mathematical tools to estimate seasonal changes in measles transmission rates and corresponding variation in population susceptibility. The tools are designed to leverage times series of cases in the absence of…

Count data with excessive zeros are often encountered when modelling infectious disease occurrence. The degree of zero inflation can vary over time due to non-epidemic periods as well as by age group or region. The existing endemic-epidemic…

The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even with age only to the nearest year, estimates of…

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…

Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are…

Transmission rates are key in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. Using the framework of compartmental models, we introduce a simple method that enables us to reconstruct time series of transmission rates directly from…

Measles is a significant source of global disease burden and child mortality. Measles vaccination through routine immunization (RI) programs in high-burden settings remains a challenge due to poor health care infrastructure and access.…

The transmission rate of many acute infectious diseases varies significantly in time, but the underlying mechanisms are usually uncertain. They may include seasonal changes in the environment, contact rate, immune system response, etc. The…

The seasonality of respiratory diseases (common cold, influenza, etc.) is a well-known phenomenon studied from ancient times. The development of predictive models is still not only an actual unsolved problem of mathematical epidemiology but…

Probabilistic models for infectious disease dynamics are useful for understanding the mechanism underlying the spread of infection. When the likelihood function for these models is expensive to evaluate, traditional likelihood-based…

Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…

Count data appears in various disciplines. In this work, a new method to analyze time series count data has been proposed. The method assumes exponentially decaying covariance structure, a special class of the Mat\'ern covariance function,…

Functional time series whose sample elements are recorded sequentially over time are frequently encountered with increasing technology. Recent studies have shown that analyzing and forecasting of functional time series can be performed…

This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…

In this manuscript, we use meteorological information in Galicia (Spain) to propose a novel approach to predict the incidence of influenza. Our approach extends the GLS methods in the multivariate framework to functional regression models…

We present a Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles within a population sample during its growing and equilibrium states by introducing two different vaccination schedules of one and two doses. We study the effects of the…

Measles, a highly contagious disease declared eliminated in the United States in 2000 after decades of successful vaccination campaigns, resurged in 2025, with 1,356 confirmed cases reported as of August 5, 2025. Given its rapid spread…

A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…