相关论文: Ordinal Patterns in Clusters of Subsequent Extreme…

It is well known that the distribution of extreme values of strictly stationary sequences differ from those of independent and identically distributed sequences in that extremal clustering may occur. Here we consider non-stationary but…

Any limiting point process for the time normalized exceedances of high levels by a stationary sequence is necessarily compound Poisson under appropriate long range dependence conditions. Typically exceedances appear in clusters. The…

Cluster indices describe extremal behaviour of stationary time series. We consider runs estimators of cluster indices. Using a modern theory of multivariate, regularly varying time series, we obtain central limit theorems under conditions…

The ordinal patterns of a fixed number of consecutive values in a time series is the spatial ordering of these values. Counting how often a specific ordinal pattern occurs in a time series provides important insights into the properties of…

In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…

We analyze the ordinal structure of long-range dependent time series. To this end, we use so called ordinal patterns which describe the relative position of consecutive data points. We provide two estimators for the probabilities of ordinal…

The extremes of a stationary time series typically occur in clusters. A primary measure for this phenomenon is the extremal index, representing the reciprocal of the expected cluster size. Both a disjoint and a sliding blocks estimator for…

In the regularly varying time series setting, a cluster of exceedances is a short period for which the supremum norm exceeds a high threshold. We propose to study a generalization of this notion considering short periods, or blocks, with…

Cluster indices describe extremal behaviour of stationary time series. We consider their sliding blocks estimators. Using a modern theory of multivariate, regularly varying time series, we obtain central limit theorems under conditions that…

Extremes occur in stationary regularly varying time series as short periods with several large observations, known as extremal blocks. We study cluster statistics summarizing the behavior of functions acting on these extremal blocks.…

In complex systems, events occur at irregular intervals that inherently encode the underlying dynamics of the system. Analyzing the temporal clustering of these events reveals critical insights into the non-random patterns and the temporal…

In the past decade, the use of ordinal patterns in the analysis of time series and dynamical systems has become an important and rich tool. Ordinal patterns (otherwise known as a permutation patterns) are found in time series by taking $n$…

Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

A measure of primal importance for capturing the serial dependence of a stationary time series at extreme levels is provided by the limiting cluster size distribution. New estimators based on a blocks declustering scheme are proposed and…

We re-consider Leadbetter's extremal index for stationary sequences. It has interpretation as reciprocal of the expected size of an extremal cluster above high thresholds. We focus on heavy-tailed time series, in particular on regularly…

We investigate exceedances of the process over a sufficiently high threshold. The exceedances determine the risk of hazardous events like climate catastrophes, huge insurance claims, the loss and delay in telecommunication networks. Due to…

We consider a stationary random field indexed by an increasing sequence of subsets of $\mathbb{Z}^d$ obeying a very broad geometrical assumption on how the sequence expands. Under certain mixing and local conditions, we show how the tail…

Ordinal pattern dependence is a multivariate dependence measure based on the co-movement of two time series. In strong connection to ordinal time series analysis, the ordinal information is taken into account to derive robust results on the…

The ultimate purpose of the statistical analysis of ordinal patterns is to characterize the distribution of the features they induce. In particular, knowing the joint distribution of the pair Entropy-Statistical Complexity for a large class…