相关论文: Risk-Limiting Bayesian Polling Audits for Two Cand…
Counting votes is complex and error-prone. Several statistical methods have been developed to assess election accuracy by manually inspecting randomly selected physical ballots. Two 'principled' methods are risk-limiting audits (RLAs) and…
Tabulation audits for an election provide statistical evidence that a reported contest outcome is "correct" (meaning that the tabulation of votes was properly performed), or else the tabulation audit determines the correct outcome. Stark…
This paper presents DiffSum, a simple post-election risk-limiting ballot-polling audit for two-candidate plurality elections. DiffSum sequentially draws ballots (without replacement) until the numbers $a$, $b$, of votes for candidates $A$,…
We propose a simple risk-limiting audit for elections, ClipAudit. To determine whether candidate A (the reported winner) actually beat candidate B in a plurality election, ClipAudit draws ballots at random, without replacement, until either…
This article * provides an overview of post-election audit sampling research and compares various approaches to calculating post-election audit sample sizes, focusing on risklimiting audits, * discusses fundamental concepts common to all…
Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are techniques for verifying the outcomes of large elections. While they provide rigorous guarantees of correctness, widespread adoption has been impeded by both efficiency concerns and the fact they offer…
Risk-limiting post election audits guarantee a high probability of correcting incorrect election results, independent of why the result was incorrect. Ballot-polling audits select ballots at random and interpret those ballots as evidence…
Risk-limiting post-election audits limit the chance of certifying an electoral outcome if the outcome is not what a full hand count would show. Building on previous work, we report on pilot risk-limiting audits in four elections during 2008…
Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are an increasingly important method for checking that the reported outcome of an election is, in fact, correct. Indeed, their use is increasingly being legislated. While effective methods for RLAs have been…
Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are expected to strengthen the public confidence in the correctness of an election outcome. We hypothesize that this is not always the case, in part because for large margins between the winner and the runner-up,…
Presidential primaries are a critical part of the United States Presidential electoral process, since they are used to select the candidates in the Presidential election. While methods differ by state and party, many primaries involve…
Consider a situation of analyzing high-dimensional count data containing an excess of near-zero counts with a small number of moderate or large counts. Assuming that the observations are modeled by a Poisson distribution, we are interested…
Toxicity monitoring is essential in Phase II clinical trials to ensure participant safety. While monitoring rules are well-established for single-arm trials, two-cohort trials present unique challenges because toxicities are expected to be…
Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are a significant tool in increasing confidence in the accuracy of elections. They consist of randomized algorithms which check that an election's vote tally, as reported by a vote tabulation system, corresponds…
We introduce two kinds of risk measures with respect to some reference probability measure, which both allow for a certain order structure and domination property. Analyzing their relation to each other leads to the question when a certain…
The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…
In this paper, we propose an explicit closed-form Bayes factor for the problem of two-sample hypothesis testing. The proposed approach can be regarded as a Bayesian version of the pooled-variance t-statistic and has various appealing…
We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…
Taiwan's auditors have suffered from processing excessive audit data, including drawing audit evidence. This study advances sampling techniques by integrating machine learning with sampling. This machine learning integration helps avoid…
A collection of races in a single election can be audited as a group by auditing a random sample of batches of ballots and combining observed discrepancies in the races represented in those batches in a particular way: the maximum…