相关论文: Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey

This review introduces the transformative potential of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foundation models, including large language models (LLMs), for health technology assessment (HTA). We explore their applications in four…

Generative AI models, including large language models and multimodal models that include text and other media, are on the cusp of transforming many aspects of modern life, including entertainment, education, civic life, the arts, and a…

Artificial intelligence is undergoing a profound transition from a computational instrument to an autonomous originator of scientific knowledge. This emerging paradigm, the AI scientist, is architected to emulate the complete scientific…

The discussion about the disruptive possibilities of a technology called artificial intelligence (AI) is on everyone's lips. Companies and countries alike are running multi-billion-dollar research programmes to ensure they do not miss out…

Despite widespread adoption, the impact of AI tools on software development in the wild remains understudied. We conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to understand how AI tools at the February-June 2025 frontier affect the…

Forecasting future events is highly valuable in decision-making and is a robust measure of general intelligence. As forecasting is probabilistic, developing and evaluating AI forecasters requires generating large numbers of diverse and…

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is making a significant impact in multiple areas like medical, military, industrial, domestic, law, arts as AI is capable to perform several roles such as managing smart factories, driving autonomous vehicles,…

AI expansion has accelerated workplace adoption of new technologies. Yet, it is unclear whether and how knowledge workers are supported and trained to safely use AI. Inadequate training may lead to unrealized benefits if workers abandon…

Talk2AI is a large-scale longitudinal dataset of 3,080 conversations (totaling 30,800 turns) between human participants and Large Language Models (LLMs), designed to support research on persuasion, opinion change, and human-AI interaction.…

The recent successes of AI have captured the wildest imagination of both the scientific communities and the general public. Robotics and AI amplify human potentials, increase productivity and are moving from simple reasoning towards…

METR's time horizon metric has grown exponentially since 2019, along with compute. However, it is unclear whether compute scaling will persist at current rates through 2030, raising the question of how possible compute slowdowns might…

Research in artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted decision-making is experiencing tremendous growth with a constantly rising number of studies evaluating the effect of AI with and without techniques from the field of explainable AI (XAI) on…

In this paper, we explore the transformative impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the manufacturing sector, highlighting its potential to revolutionize industry practices and enhance operational efficiency. We delve into various…

To gain a sense of the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), this research analyzes what has been done in the past, presently in the last decade and what is predicted for the next several decades. The paper will highlight the biggest…

The proposed symposium focuses understanding, modeling, and improving the efficacy of (a) communicating proficiency from human to robot and (b) communicating intent from a human to a robot. For example, how should a robot convey predicted…

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to significantly increase the productivity, quality, and profitability in future manufacturing systems. Traditional mass-production will give way to personalized production,…

As Large Language Models reshape the global labor market, policymakers and workers need empirical data on which occupational skills may be most susceptible to automation. We present the Skill Automation Feasibility Index (SAFI),…

We tasked 16 state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) with estimating the likelihood of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) emerging by 2030. To assess the quality of these forecasts, we implemented an automated peer review process…

This article presents the full, original record of the 2024 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) town hall, "Statistics in the Age of AI," which convened leading statisticians to discuss how the field is evolving in response to advances in…

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have achieved human-scale speed and accuracy for classification tasks. In turn, these capabilities have made AI a viable replacement for many human activities that at their core involve…