相关论文: Countering Violent Extremism: A mathematical model
We propose a simple mathematical model to describe the evolution of violent crimes. For such purpose, we built a model based on ordinary differential equations that take into account the number of violent crimes and the number of legal and…
Evaluating rare-event forecasts is challenging because standard metrics collapse as event prevalence declines. Measures such as F1-score, AUPRC, MCC, and accuracy induce degenerate thresholds -- converging to zero or one -- and their values…
This article summarizes the contribution of team genEVA to the EVA (2023) Conference Data Challenge. The challenge comprises four individual tasks, with two focused on univariate extremes and two related to multivariate extremes. In the…
Survival regression aims to predict the time when an event of interest will take place, typically a death or a failure. A fully parametric method [18] is proposed to estimate the survival function as a mixture of individual parametric…
By adopting a distributional viewpoint on law-invariant convex risk measures, we construct dynamics risk measures (DRMs) at the distributional level. We then apply these DRMs to investigate Markov decision processes, incorporating latent…
Cellwise outliers are likely to occur together with casewise outliers in modern data sets with relatively large dimension. Recent work has shown that traditional robust regression methods may fail for data sets in this paradigm. The…
This paper introduces the notions of stability, ultimate boundedness, and positive invariance for stochastic systems in the view of risk. More specifically, those notions are defined in terms of the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk…
Threat modelling is the process of identifying potential vulnerabilities in a system and prioritising them. Existing threat modelling tools focus primarily on technical systems and are not as well suited to interpersonal threats. In this…
In robust optimization, we would like to find a solution that is immunized against all scenarios that are modeled in an uncertainty set. Which scenarios to include in such a set is therefore of central importance for the tractability of the…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
Cyber networks are fundamental to many organization's infrastructure, and the size of cyber networks is increasing rapidly. Risk measurement of the entities/endpoints that make up the network via available knowledge about possible threats…
In this essay, we investigate some relations between Chemical Reaction Networks (CRN) and Mathematical Epidemiology (ME) and report on several pleasant surprises which we had simply by putting these two topics together. Firstly, we propose…
Clinical risk prediction is a valuable tool for guiding healthcare interventions toward those most likely to benefit. Yet, evaluating the pairing of a risk prediction model with an intervention using randomized controlled trials presents…
This paper examines the process of emergence of religious fundamentalism through development parameters. Therefore this research work reflects an analytical discussion on how the level of religious fundamentalism can be explained by the…
Recent studies have revealed the vulnerability of deep neural networks: A small adversarial perturbation that is imperceptible to human can easily make a well-trained deep neural network misclassify. This makes it unsafe to apply neural…
Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…
Multivariate extreme value analysis quantifies the probability and magnitude of joint extreme events. River discharges from the upper Danube River basin provide a challenging dataset for such analysis because the data, which is measured on…
Regularization methods allow one to handle a variety of inferential problems where there are more covariates than cases. This allows one to consider a potentially enormous number of covariates for a problem. We exploit the power of these…
We consider robust empirical risk minimization (ERM), where model parameters are chosen to minimize the worst-case empirical loss when each data point varies over a given convex uncertainty set. In some simple cases, such problems can be…
We conduct a non asymptotic study of the Cross Validation (CV) estimate of the generalization risk for learning algorithms dedicated to extreme regions of the covariates space. In this Extreme Value Analysis context, the risk function…