相关论文: A unified framework of epidemic spreading predicti…

The study proposes a modeling framework for investigating the disease dynamics with adaptive human behavior during a disease outbreak, considering the impacts of both local observations and global information. One important application…

One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…

We develop a feedback control method for networked epidemic spreading processes. In contrast to most prior works which consider mean field, open-loop control schemes, the present work develops a novel framework for feedback control of…

This paper proposes a sequential ensemble methodology for epidemic modeling that integrates discrete-time Hawkes processes (DTHP) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) models. Motivated by the need for accurate and reliable…

Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…

This paper analyses the dynamics of infectious disease with a concurrent spread of disease awareness. The model includes local awareness due to contacts with aware individuals, as well as global awareness due to reported cases of infection…

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…

The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…

We develop a generalized group-based epidemic model (GgroupEM) framework for any compartmental epidemic model (for example; susceptible-infected-susceptible, susceptible-infected-recovered, susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered). Here, a…

We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree $\kappa $. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find…

We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

The susceptible-exposed-infectious-susceptible (SEIS) model is well-known in mathematical epidemiology as a model of infection in which there is a latent period between the moment of infection and the onset of infectiousness. The…

Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…

This paper investigates the spread of infectious diseases within a networked community by integrating epidemic transmission and public opinion dynamics. We propose a novel discrete-time networked SIS (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible)…

Infectious diseases that incorporate pre-symptomatic transmission are challenging to monitor, model, predict and contain. We address this scenario by studying a variant of a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model on…

We present a modified \emph{susceptible-infected-susceptible} (SIS) model on complex networks, small-world and scale-free, to study epidemic spreading with the effect of time delay which is introduced to the infected phase. Considering the…

The accurate forecasting of infectious epidemic diseases is the key to effective control of the epidemic situation in a region. Most existing methods ignore potential dynamic dependencies between regions or the importance of temporal…

In this paper we investigate a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model describing data dissemination in opportunistic networks with heterogeneous setting of transmission parameters. We obtained the estimation of the final…

Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative…