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We present new results on average causal effects in settings with unmeasured exposure-outcome confounding. Our results are motivated by a class of estimands, e.g., frequently of interest in medicine and public health, that are currently not…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-25 Lan Wen , Aaron L. Sarvet , Mats J. Stensrud

Inference in hierarchical nonlinear models needs careful consideration about targeting parameters that have either a conditional or population-average interpretation. For the special case of mixed-effects nonlinear sigmoidal models we…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-07-11 Daniel Gerhard , Christian Ritz

Isotonic regression (IR) is shape-constrained regression to maintain a univariate fitting curve non-decreasing, which has numerous applications including single-index models and probability calibration. When it comes to multi-output…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-12 Han Bao , Amirreza Eshraghi , Yutong Wang

Inverse weighting with an estimated propensity score is widely used by estimation methods in causal inference to adjust for confounding bias. However, directly inverting propensity score estimates can lead to instability, bias, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-11 Lars van der Laan , Ziming Lin , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

To estimate causal effects, analysts performing observational studies in health settings utilize several strategies to mitigate bias due to confounding by indication. There are two broad classes of approaches for these purposes: use of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-01 Roy S. Zawadzki , Joshua D. Grill , Daniel L. Gillen

Nonparametric regression problems with qualitative constraints such as monotonicity or convexity are ubiquitous in applications. For example, in predicting the yield of a factory in terms of the number of labor hours, the monotonicity of…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-11-21 Soham Mallick , Siddhaarth Sarkar , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Compared to the nominal scale, the ordinal scale for a categorical outcome variable has the property of making a monotonicity assumption for the covariate effects meaningful. This assumption is encoded in the commonly used proportional odds…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-04 Olli Saarela , Christian Rohrbeck , Elja Arjas

Modern machine learning (ML) methods typically fail to adequately capture causal information. Consequently, such models do not handle data distributional shifts, are vulnerable to adversarial examples, and often learn spurious correlations.…

量子物理 · 物理学 2026-01-27 Rishi Goel , Casey R. Myers , Sally Shrapnel

This paper proposes a model-free nonparametric estimator of conditional quantile of a time series regression model where the covariate vector is repeated many times for different values of the response. This type of data is abound in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-07 Soudeep Deb , Kaushik Jana

Propensity score trimming, which discards subjects with propensity scores below a threshold, is a common way to address positivity violations that complicate causal effect estimation. However, most works on trimming assume treatment is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-31 Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

Marginal structural models are a popular tool for investigating the effects of time-varying treatments, but they require an assumption of no unobserved confounders between the treatment and outcome. With observational data, this assumption…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-10 Matthew Blackwell , Soichiro Yamauchi

The Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model is a wide used estimation procedure in econometrics, insurance and finance, where very often, the regression model contains more than one equation. Unknown parameters, regression coefficients…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-05 Giovanni Saraceno , Fatemah Alqallaf , Claudio Agostinelli

Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments is a common problem in practice, for example, in studying average dose-response functions. Classical analyses typically assume that all confounders are fully observed, whereas in real-world…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-04-14 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

Causal inference methods can be applied to estimate the effect of a point exposure or treatment on an outcome of interest using data from observational studies. For example, in the Women's Interagency HIV Study, it is of interest to…

Additive isotonic regression attempts to determine the relationship between a multi-dimensional observation variable and a response, under the constraint that the estimate is the additive sum of univariate component effects that are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2010-06-16 Zhou Fang , Nicolai Meinshausen

The problem of nonparametric inference on a monotone function has been extensively studied in many particular cases. Estimators considered have often been of so-called Grenander type, being representable as the left derivative of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-12-03 Ted Westling , Marco Carone

Controlled interventions provide the most direct source of information for learning causal effects. In particular, a dose-response curve can be learned by varying the treatment level and observing the corresponding outcomes. However,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-05-06 Ricardo Silva

M-quantile regression is a general form of quantile-like regression which usually utilises the Huber influence function and corresponding tuning constant. Estimation requires a nuisance scale parameter to ensure the M-quantile estimates are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-23 James Dawber , Nicola Salvati , Timo Schmid , Nikos Tzavidis

It is important to draw causal inference from observational studies, which, however, becomes challenging if the confounders have missing values. Generally, causal effects are not identifiable if the confounders are missing not at random. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-02-04 Shu Yang , Linbo Wang , Peng Ding

In many applications there is interest in estimating the relation between a predictor and an outcome when the relation is known to be monotone or otherwise constrained due to the physical processes involved. We consider one such…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-23 Ander Wilson , Jessica Tryner , Christian L'Orange , John Volckens