相关论文: Victory Probability in the Fire Emblem Arena

We investigate an algorithm that assigns to any game in normal form an approximating game that admits an ordinal potential function. Due to the properties of potential games, the algorithm equips every game with a surrogate reward structure…

The Pythagorean formula is one of the most popular ways to measure the true ability of a team. It is very easy to use, estimating a team's winning percentage from the runs they score and allow. This data is readily available on standings…

Predicting the winner of an election is a favorite problem both for news media pundits and computational social choice theorists. Since it is often infeasible to elicit the preferences of all the voters in a typical prediction scenario, a…

It remains an open question how to determine the winner of an election when voter preferences are incomplete or uncertain. One option is to assume some probability space over the voting profile and select the Most Probable Winner (MPW) --…

The winning condition of a parity game with costs requires an arbitrary, but fixed bound on the cost incurred between occurrences of odd colors and the next occurrence of a larger even one. Such games quantitatively extend parity games…

We develop a systematic approach to quantum probability as a theory of rational betting in quantum gambles. In these games of chance the agent is betting in advance on the outcomes of several (finitely many) incompatible measurements. One…

The use of numerical uncertainty representations allows better modeling of some aspects of human evidential reasoning. It also makes knowledge acquisition and system development, test, and modification more difficult. We propose that where…

Exploration is a difficult challenge in reinforcement learning and is of prime importance in sparse reward environments. However, many of the state of the art deep reinforcement learning algorithms, that rely on epsilon-greedy, fail on…

We present FlameNEST, a framework providing explicit likelihood evaluations in noble element particle detectors using data-driven models from the Noble Element Simulation Technique. FlameNEST provides a way to perform statistical analyses…

Motivated by the controversy in the chess community, where Hikaru Nakamura, a renowned grandmaster, has posted multiple impressive winning streaks over the years on the online platform chess.com, we derive the probabilities of various types…

This research applies concepts from algorithmic probability to Boolean and quantum combinatorial logic circuits. A tutorial-style introduction to states and various notions of the complexity of states are presented. Thereafter, the…

The problem of estimating the probability of a random process reaching a certain level is well known. In this article, two-sided estimates are established for the probability that a regenerative process reaches a high level. Two auxiliary…

The Simulation Argument has gained significant traction in the public arena. It has offered a hypothesis based on probabilistic analysis of its assumptions that we are likely to exist within a computer simulation. This has been derived from…

We present a method for estimating the probabilities of outcomes of a quantum circuit using Monte Carlo sampling techniques applied to a quasiprobability representation. Our estimate converges to the true quantum probability at a rate…

We analyze the computational complexity of the problem of deciding whether, for a given simple game, there exists the possibility of rearranging the participants in a set of $j$ given losing coalitions into a set of $j$ winning coalitions.…

Population games model the evolution of strategic interactions among a large number of uniform agents. Due to the agents' uniformity and quantity, their aggregate strategic choices can be approximated by the solutions of a class of ordinary…

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

A valuation for a player in a game in extensive form is an assignment of numeric values to the players moves. The valuation reflects the desirability moves. We assume a myopic player, who chooses a move with the highest valuation.…

We describe a formulation of multi-agents operating within a Cyber-Physical System, resulting in collaborative or adversarial games. We show that the non-determinism inherent in the communication medium between agents and the underlying…

The stochastic efficiency of effusion as a thermal engine is investigated within the framework of stochastic thermodynamics. Explicit results are obtained for the probability distribution of the efficiency both at finite times and in the…