相关论文: Victory Probability in the Fire Emblem Arena

We introduce probability estimation, a broadly applicable framework to certify randomness in a finite sequence of measurement results without assuming that these results are independent and identically distributed. Probability estimation…

In ill-posed inverse problems, it is commonly desirable to obtain insight into the full spectrum of plausible solutions, rather than extracting only a single reconstruction. Information about the plausible solutions and their likelihoods is…

We study the inverse power index problem for weighted voting games: the problem of finding a weighted voting game in which the power of the players is as close as possible to a certain target distribution. Our goal is to find algorithms…

A new likelihood based AR approximation is given for ARMA models. The usual algorithms for the computation of the likelihood of an ARMA model require $O(n)$ flops per function evaluation. Using our new approximation, an algorithm is…

An approach towards quantum games is proposed that uses the unusual probabilities involved in EPR-type experiments directly in two-player games.

Fire keeps claiming a large number of victims in building fires. Although there are ways to minimize such events, fire drills are used to train the building occupants for emergency situations. However, organizing and implement these…

We study weakest precondition reasoning about the (co)variance of outcomes and the variance of run-times of probabilistic programs with conditioning. For outcomes, we show that approximating (co)variances is computationally more difficult…

Consider a collection of m competing machine learning algorithms. Given their performance on a benchmark of datasets, we would like to identify the best performing algorithm. Specifically, which algorithm is most likely to ``win'' (rank…

In this paper we solve the three-player-game question. A three-player-game consists of a series of rounds. There are altogether three players. Two players participate in each round, at the end of the round the loser quits and the third…

Finding a counterfeit coin with the different weight from a set of visually identical coin using a balance, usually a two-armed balance, known as the balance question, is an intersting and inspiring question. Its variants involve…

We present a method to prove the decidability of provability in several well-known inference systems. This method generalizes both cut-elimination and the construction of an automaton recognizing the provable propositions.

Reasoning about uncertainty is vital in many real-life autonomous systems. However, current state-of-the-art planning algorithms cannot either reason about uncertainty explicitly, or do so with a high computational burden. Here, we focus on…

We consider a general proportional odds model for survival data under binary treatment, where the functional form of the covariates is left unspecified. We derive the efficient score for the conditional survival odds ratio given the…

We consider a pursuit-evasion game that describes the process of extinguishing a fire burning on the nodes of an undirected graph. We denote the minimum number of firefighters required by ffn(G) and provide almost sharp bounds to this graph…

Werewolf is a popular party game throughout the world, and research on its significance has progressed in recent years. The Werewolf game is based on conversation, and in order to win, participants must use all of their cognitive abilities.…

We outline a method to estimate the value of computation for a flexible algorithm using empirical data. To determine a reasonable trade-off between cost and value, we build an empirical model of the value obtained through computation, and…

In the paper is discussed complete probabilistic description of quantum systems with application to multiqubit quantum computations. In simplest case it is a set of probabilities of transitions to some fixed set of states. The probabilities…

The potential of reinforcement learning (RL) to deliver aligned and performant agents is partially bottlenecked by the reward engineering problem. One alternative to heuristic trial-and-error is preference-based RL (PbRL), where a reward…

We study an evolutionary game of chance in which the probabilities for different outcomes (e.g., heads or tails) depend on the amount wagered on those outcomes. The game is perhaps the simplest possible probabilistic game in which…

We characterize all common notions of behavioral equivalence by one 6-dimensional energy game, where energies bound capabilities of an attacker trying to tell processes apart. The defender-winning initial credits exhaustively determine…