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Heavy-tailed metrics are common and often critical to product evaluation in the online world. While we may have samples large enough for Central Limit Theorem to kick in, experimentation is challenging due to the wide confidence interval of…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-05-23 Jason , Wang , Pauline Burke

Online A/B tests have become increasingly popular and important for social platforms. However, accurately estimating the global average treatment effect (GATE) has proven to be challenging due to network interference, which violates the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-27 Qianyi Chen , Bo Li , Lu Deng , Yong Wang

Treatment effect estimation can assist in effective decision-making in e-commerce, medicine, and education. One popular application of this estimation lies in the prediction of the impact of a treatment (e.g., a promotion) on an outcome…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-26 Xiaofeng Lin , Guoxi Zhang , Xiaotian Lu , Han Bao , Koh Takeuchi , Hisashi Kashima

We study the problem of selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimator from a collection of candidates in settings where the treatment effect is fundamentally unobserved. We cast estimator selection as a multiple testing…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-25 Jiayi Guo , Zijun Gao

Experimentation is widely utilized for causal inference and data-driven decision-making across disciplines. In an A/B experiment, for example, an online business randomizes two different treatments (e.g., website designs) to their customers…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-15 Wenxuan Guo , JungHo Lee , Panos Toulis

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) for survival outcomes has gained increasing attention, as it captures the variation in treatment efficacy across patients or subgroups in delaying disease progression. However, most existing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-27 Na Bo , Ying Ding

In the new era of personalization, learning the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) becomes an inevitable trend with numerous applications. Yet, most existing HTE estimation methods focus on independently and identically distributed…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-01-31 Ye Shen , Runzhe Wan , Hengrui Cai , Rui Song

Patient privacy is a major barrier to healthcare AI. For confidentiality reasons, most patient data remains in silo in separate hospitals, preventing the design of data-driven healthcare AI systems that need large volumes of patient data to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-11 Tatsuki Koga , Kamalika Chaudhuri , David Page

In personalised decision making, evidence is required to determine whether an action (treatment) is suitable for an individual. Such evidence can be obtained by modelling treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroups. The existing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-24 Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Shisheng Zhang , Saisai Ma , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

A/B testing, also known as controlled experiment, bucket testing or splitting testing, has been widely used for evaluating a new feature, service or product in the data-driven decision processes of online websites. The goal of A/B testing…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-10-26 Bai Jiang , Xiaolin Shi , Hongwei Shang , Zhigeng Geng , Alyssa Glass

Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are increasingly estimated using machine learning models that produce highly personalized predictions of treatment effects. In practice, however, predicted treatment effects are rarely interpreted,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-25 Joel Persson , Jurriën Bakker , Dennis Bohle , Stefan Feuerriegel , Florian von Wangenheim

Recently, many researchers have advanced data-driven methods for modeling heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). Even still, estimation of HTEs is a difficult task -- these methods frequently over- or under-estimate the treatment effects,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-28 Yizhe Xu , Steve Yadlowsky

Assessing treatment effect heterogeneity (TEH) in clinical trials is crucial, as it provides insights into the variability of treatment responses among patients, influencing important decisions related to drug development. Furthermore, it…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-02-06 Konstantinos Sechidis , Cong Zhang , Sophie Sun , Yao Chen , Asher Spector , Björn Bornkamp

Randomized controlled experiment has long been accepted as the golden standard for establishing causal link and estimating causal effect in various scientific fields. Average treatment effect is often used to summarize the effect…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-10-14 Alex Deng , Pengchuan Zhang , Shouyuan Chen , Dong Woo Kim , Jiannan Lu

A/B testing is ubiquitous within the machine learning and data science operations of internet companies. Generically, the idea is to perform a statistical test of the hypothesis that a new feature is better than the existing platform---for…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-10-11 David Goldberg , James E. Johndrow

A new online multiple testing procedure is described in the context of anomaly detection, which controls the False Discovery Rate (FDR). An accurate anomaly detector must control the false positive rate at a prescribed level while keeping…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Etienne Krönert , Alain Célisse , Dalila Hattab

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a global measure of the effectiveness of an experimental treatment intervention. Classical methods of its estimation either ignore relevant covariates or do not fully exploit them. Moreover, past work…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-11-05 Emil Pitkin , Richard Berk , Lawrence Brown , Andreas Buja , Ed George , Kai Zhang , Linda Zhao

The aim of clinical effectiveness research using repositories of electronic health records is to identify what health interventions 'work best' in real-world settings. Since there are several reasons why the net benefit of intervention may…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-19 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

In social media platforms, user behavior is often influenced by interactions with other users, complicating the accurate estimation of causal effects in traditional A/B experiments. This study investigates situations where an individual's…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2024-02-21 Lu Deng , Yilin Li , JingJing Zhang , Yong Wang , Chuan Chen

In semi-logarithmic regressions, treatment coefficients are often interpreted as approximations of the average treatment effect (ATE) in percentage points. This paper highlights the overlooked bias of this approximation under treatment…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-04 Ying Zeng