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A/B testing has become the cornerstone of decision-making in online markets, guiding how platforms launch new features, optimize pricing strategies, and improve user experience. In practice, we typically employ the pairwise $t$-test to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-29 Junpeng Gong , Chunkai Wang , Hao Li , Jinyong Ma , Haoxuan Li , Xu He

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-07 Oliver Dukes , Mats J. Stensrud , Riccardo Brioschi , Aaron Hudson

When testing multiple hypotheses, a suitable error rate should be controlled even in exploratory trials. Conventional methods to control the False Discovery Rate (FDR) assume that all p-values are available at the time point of test…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-21 Sonja Zehetmayer , Martin Posch , Franz Koenig

Causal inference from observational data requires untestable identification assumptions. If these assumptions apply, machine learning (ML) methods can be used to study complex forms of causal effect heterogeneity. Recently, several ML…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-20 Richard Post , Isabel van den Heuvel , Marko Petkovic , Edwin van den Heuvel

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

A/B testing methodology is generally performed by private companies to increase user engagement and satisfaction about online features. Their usage is far from being transparent and may undermine user autonomy (e.g. polarizing individual…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2024-05-03 Matteo Ottaviani , Stefan M. Herzog , Pietro Leonardo Nickl , Philipp Lorenz-Spreen

Understanding effect modification -- how treatment effects vary across subpopulations -- is practically important in observational studies, as it helps identify which subgroups are likely to benefit from a given treatment. In this paper, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Yu Gui , Dylan S Small , Zhimei Ren

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in network settings is complicated by interference, meaning that the outcome of an instance can be influenced by the treatment status of others. Existing causal machine learning approaches usually…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-27 Daan Caljon , Jente Van Belle , Wouter Verbeke

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a crucial task in online advertising to recommend products that users are likely to be interested in. To identify the best-performing models, rigorous model evaluation is necessary. Offline…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2024-06-27 Ramazan Tarik Turksoy , Beyza Turkmen

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) over time is crucial in many disciplines such as personalized medicine. For example, electronic health records are commonly collected over several time periods and then used to personalize…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-07 Dennis Frauen , Konstantin Hess , Stefan Feuerriegel

A/B testing is critical for modern technological companies to evaluate the effectiveness of newly developed products against standard baselines. This paper studies optimal designs that aim to maximize the amount of information obtained from…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-07 Ting Li , Chengchun Shi , Jianing Wang , Fan Zhou , Hongtu Zhu

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Treatment effect heterogeneity plays an important role in many areas of causal inference and within recent years, estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) has received much attention in the statistical community. While…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

Online controlled experiments, colloquially known as A/B-tests, are the bread and butter of real-world recommender system evaluation. Typically, end-users are randomly assigned some system variant, and a plethora of metrics are then…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2024-07-31 Olivier Jeunen , Shubham Baweja , Neeti Pokharna , Aleksei Ustimenko

An important task in drug development is to identify patients, which respond better or worse to an experimental treatment. Identifying predictive covariates, which influence the treatment effect and can be used to define subgroups of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-11-27 Marius Thomas , Björn Bornkamp , Katja Ickstadt

This study investigates the identification power gained by combining experimental data, in which treatment is randomized, with observational data, in which treatment is self-selected, for distributional treatment effect (DTE) parameters.…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-24 Shosei Sakaguchi

On-line experimentation (also known as A/B testing) has become an integral part of software development. To timely incorporate user feedback and continuously improve products, many software companies have adopted the culture of agile…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-08-13 Yu Wang , Somit Gupta , Jiannan Lu , Ali Mahmoudzadeh , Sophia Liu

Estimating the effects of long-term treatments through A/B testing is challenging. Treatments, such as updates to product functionalities, user interface designs, and recommendation algorithms, are intended to persist within the system for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-30 Shan Huang , Chen Wang , Yuan Yuan , Jinglong Zhao , Brocco , Zhang

Online controlled experiments are the primary tool for measuring the causal impact of product changes in digital businesses. It is increasingly common for digital products and services to interact with customers in a personalised way. Using…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-02 C. H. Bryan Liu , Benjamin Paul Chamberlain

Deep learning models have demonstrated promising results in estimating treatment effects (TEE). However, most of them overlook the variations in treatment outcomes among subgroups with distinct characteristics. This limitation hinders their…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-31 Seungyeon Lee , Ruoqi Liu , Wenyu Song , Ping Zhang
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