相关论文: Dating and localizing an invasion from post-introd…
The effects of the so-called "refugee crisis" of 2015-16 continue to dominate the political agenda in Europe. Migration flows were sudden and unexpected, leaving governments unprepared and exposing significant shortcomings in the field of…
This paper addresses statistical modelling and forecasting of key indicators describing the severity of a developing pandemic, using routinely reported daily counts of infections, hospitalizations, deaths (both in and out of hospital), and…
We are interested in the invasion phase for stochastic processes with interactions when a single mutant with positive fitness arrives in a resident population at equilibrium. By a now classic approach, the first stage of the invasion is…
Biological active materials such as bacterial biofilms and eukaryotic cells thrive in confined micro-spaces. Here, we show through numerical simulations that confinement can serve as a mechanical guidance to achieve distinct modes of…
Aims: Caustic-crossing binary-lens microlensing events are important anomalous events because they are capable of detecting an extrasolar planet companion orbiting the lens star. Fast and robust modelling methods are thus of prime interest…
We describe work in progress by a collaboration of astronomers and statisticians developing a suite of Bayesian data analysis tools for extrasolar planet (exoplanet) detection, planetary orbit estimation, and adaptive scheduling of…
We consider the problem of selecting deterministic or stochastic models for a biological, ecological, or environmental dynamical process. In most cases, one prefers either deterministic or stochastic models as candidate models based on…
With the advent of modern data collection and storage technologies, data-driven approaches have been developed for discovering the governing partial differential equations (PDE) of physical problems. However, in the extant works the model…
The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…
Environmental phenomena are influenced by complex interactions among various factors. For instance, the amount of rainfall measured at different stations within a given area is shaped by atmospheric conditions, orography, and physics of…
A central problem in biology is to understand how organisms evolve and adapt to their environment by acquiring variations in the observable characteristics or traits of species across the tree of life. With the growing availability of…
Reaction-diffusion analytical modeling of predator-prey systems has shown that specialist natural enemies can slow, stop and even reverse pest invasions, assuming that the prey population displays a strong Allee effect in its growth. Few…
This chapter describes a novel approach for the treatment of model error in geophysical data assimilation. In this method, model error is treated as a deterministic process fully correlated in time. This allows for the derivation of the…
In 2021 300 mm of rain, nearly half the average annual rainfall, fell near Catania (Sicily island, Italy). Such events took place in just a few hours, with dramatic consequences on the environmental, social, economic, and health systems of…
Identifying undocumented or potential future interactions among species is a challenge facing modern ecologists. Recent link prediction methods rely on trait data, however large species interaction databases are typically sparse and…
We consider a dynamic version of the Neyman contagious point process that can be used for modelling the spacial dynamics of biological populations, including species invasion scenarios. Starting with an arbitrary finite initial…
Interacting particle or agent systems that display a rich variety of swarming behaviours are ubiquitous in science and engineering. A fundamental and challenging goal is to understand the link between individual interaction rules and…
How do species coexist? A framework known as Modern Coexistence Theory measures mechanisms of coexistence by comparing a species perturbed to low density (the invader) to other species that remain at their typical densities (the residents);…
Presence-only data, point locations where a species has been recorded as being present, are often used in modeling the distribution of a species as a function of a set of explanatory variables---whether to map species occurrence, to…
Causal inference across multiple data sources offers a promising avenue to enhance the generalizability and replicability of scientific findings. However, data integration methods for time-to-event outcomes, common in biomedical research,…