相关论文: Estimation of seasonal long-memory parameters

This work aims at estimating inverse autocovariance matrices of long memory processes admitting a linear representation. A modified Cholesky decomposition is used in conjunction with an increasing order autoregressive model to achieve this…

We present a conformal prediction method for time series using the Transformer architecture to capture long-memory and long-range dependencies. Specifically, we use the Transformer decoder as a conditional quantile estimator to predict the…

Many scientific areas, from computer science to the environmental sciences and finance, give rise to multivariate time series which exhibit long memory, or loosely put, a slow decay in their autocorrelation structure. Efficient modelling…

This article introduces estimators of trend and seasonality for time series of point processes. We assume the point processes follow a temporal or spatial doubly-stochastic Poisson model with log-Gaussian intensity functions. The proposed…

Particle filters flexibly represent multiple posterior modes nonparametrically, via a collection of weighted samples, but have classically been applied to tracking problems with known dynamics and observation likelihoods. Such generative…

For the class of stationary Gaussian long memory processes, we study some properties of the least-squares predictor of X_{n+1} based on (X_n, ..., X_1). The predictor is obtained by projecting X_{n+1} onto the finite past and the…

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian…

This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et…

We study the aggregation/disaggregation problem of random parameter AR(1) processes and its relation to the long memory phenomenon. We give a characterization of a subclass of aggregated processes which can be obtained from simpler,…

This article develops a periodic version of a time varying parameter fractional process in the stationary region. It is a partial extension of Hosking (1981)'s article which dealt with the case where the coefficients are invariant in time.…

Modeling biological processes is a highly demanding task because not all processes are fully understood. Mathematical models allow us to test hypotheses about possible mechanisms of biological processes. The mathematical mechanisms…

In this paper, we study the problem of adaptive estimation of the spectral density of a stationary Gaussian process. For this purpose, we consider a wavelet-based method which combines the ideas of wavelet approximation and estimation by…

This work is intended as a contribution to a wavelet-based adaptive estimator of the memory parameter in the classical semi-parametric framework for Gaussian stationary processes. In particular we introduce and develop the choice of a…

We consider the problem of estimating the sparse time-varying parameter vectors of a point process model in an online fashion, where the observations and inputs respectively consist of binary and continuous time series. We construct a novel…

In this study we introduce a novel energy functional for long-sequence memory, building upon the framework of dense Hopfield networks which achieves exponential storage capacity through higher-order interactions. Building upon earlier work…

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

This paper considers the problem of estimating the population spectral distribution from a sample covariance matrix in large dimensional situations. We generalize the contour-integral based method in Mestre (2008) and present a local moment…

Time delays increase the effective dimensionality of reservoirs, thus suggesting that time delays in reservoirs can enhance their performance, particularly their memory and prediction abilities. We find new closed-form expressions for…

Structural failure time models are causal models for estimating the effect of time-varying treatments on a survival outcome. G-estimation and artificial censoring have been proposed to estimate the model parameters in the presence of…

Building accurate language models that capture meaningful long-term dependencies is a core challenge in natural language processing. Towards this end, we present a calibration-based approach to measure long-term discrepancies between a…