相关论文: Rule-based Autoregressive Moving Average Models fo…

In practice, several time series exhibit long-range dependence or persistence in their observations, leading to the development of a number of estimation and prediction methodologies to account for the slowly decaying autocorrelations. The…

Real-world IP network traffic is susceptible to external and internal factors such as new internet service integration, traffic migration, internet application, etc. Due to these factors, the actual internet traffic is non-linear and…

Many businesses and industries require accurate forecasts for weekly time series nowadays. However, the forecasting literature does not currently provide easy-to-use, automatic, reproducible and accurate approaches dedicated to this task.…

We develop a time series model to forecast weekly peak power demand for three main states of Australia for a yearly time-scale, and show the crucial role of environmental factors in improving the forecasts. More precisely, we construct a…

Weather forecasting is a fundamental task in spatiotemporal data analysis, with broad applications across a wide range of domains. Existing data-driven forecasting methods typically model atmospheric dynamics over a fixed short time…

The Mat\'ern covariance model is ubiquitous in spatial modelling, but there is no default choice for spatio-temporal modelling. In this paper, we consider the recently proposed ``diffusion-based'' extension of the spatial Mat\'ern…

This study develops a SARIMAX-based prediction system for short-term power outage forecasting during extreme weather events. Using hourly data from Michigan counties with outage counts and comprehensive weather features, we implement a…

This paper proposes the beta binomial autoregressive moving average model (BBARMA) for modeling quantized amplitude data and bounded count data. The BBARMA model estimates the conditional mean of a beta binomial distributed variable…

Time series forecasting (TSF) is essential in various domains, and recent advancements in diffusion-based TSF models have shown considerable promise. However, these models typically adopt traditional diffusion patterns, treating TSF as a…

Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less…

Short Term Load forecasting in this paper uses input data dependent on parameters such as load for current hour and previous two hours, temperature for current hour and previous two hours, wind for current hour and previous two hours, cloud…

Since with massive data growth, the need for autonomous and generic anomaly detection system is increased. However, developing one stand-alone generic anomaly detection system that is accurate and fast is still a challenge. In this paper,…

An emerging number of modern applications involve forecasting time series data that exhibit both short-time dynamics and long-time seasonality. Specifically, time series with multiple seasonality is a difficult task with comparatively fewer…

Continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) process driven by simple semi-L\'evy process has periodically correlated property with many potential application in finance. In this paper, we study on the estimation of the parameters…

Real-world time series data often present recurrent or repetitive patterns and it is often generated in real time, such as transportation passenger volume, network traffic, system resource consumption, energy usage, and human gait.…

Time series in natural sciences, such as hydrology and climatology, and other environmental applications, often consist of continuous observations constrained to the unit interval (0,1). Traditional Gaussian-based models fail to capture…

Temperature uncertainty models for land and sea surfaces can be developed based on statistical methods. In this paper, we developed a novel time series temperature uncertainty model which is the Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARMA)(1, 1)…

An accurate forecast of electric demand is essential for the optimal design of a generation system. For district installations, the projected lifespan may extend one or two decades. The reliance on a single-year forecast, combined with a…

The spatio-temporal autoregressive moving average (STARMA) model is frequently used in several studies of multivariate time series data, where the assumption of stationarity is important, but it is not always guaranteed in practice. One way…

A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…