相关论文: Rule-based Autoregressive Moving Average Models fo…

Appropriate modelling of extreme skew surges is crucial, particularly for coastal risk management. Our study focuses on modelling extreme skew surges along the French Atlantic coast, with a particular emphasis on investigating the extremal…

Fitting autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series models requires model identification before parameter estimation. Model identification involves determining the order of the autoregressive and moving average components which is…

In this paper, we propose a novel multi-variate algorithm using a triple-regression methodology to predict the airborne-pollen allergy season that can be customized for each patient in the long term. To improve the prediction accuracy, we…

We propose a statistical adaptive procedure called SALSA for automatically scheduling the learning rate (step size) in stochastic gradient methods. SALSA first uses a smoothed stochastic line-search procedure to gradually increase the…

Most time-series models assume that the data come from observations that are equally spaced in time. However, this assumption does not hold in many diverse scientific fields, such as astronomy, finance, and climatology, among others. There…

Short term load forecasting has an essential medium for the reliable, economical and efficient operation of the power system. Most of the existing forecasting approaches utilize fixed statistical models with large historical data for…

Time series autoregression (AR) is a classical tool for modeling auto-correlations and periodic structures in real-world systems. We revisit this model from an interpretable machine learning perspective by introducing sparse autoregression…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian non-parametric regression model that is commonly used in causal inference and beyond. Its strong predictive performance is supported by well-developed estimation theory,…

The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…

Short-term forecasting models typically assume the availability of input data (features) when they are deployed and in use. However, equipment failures, disruptions, cyberattacks, may lead to missing features when such models are used…

Accurate precipitation forecasts have a high socio-economic value due to their role in decision-making in various fields such as transport networks and farming. We propose a global statistical postprocessing method for grid-based…

While numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential for forecasting thunderstorms hours in advance, NWP uncertainty, which increases with lead time, limits the predictability of thunderstorm occurrence. This study investigates how…

Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) models form a powerful and general model class for analyzing dynamics among multiple time series. While VARMA models encompass the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, their popularity in…

Time series models often deal with extreme events and anomalies, both prevalent in real-world datasets. Such models often need to provide careful probabilistic forecasting, which is vital in risk management for extreme events such as…

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update…

Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. We show for the first time…

Multiple seasonal patterns play a key role in time series forecasting, especially for business time series where seasonal effects are often dramatic. Previous approaches including Fourier decomposition, exponential smoothing, and seasonal…

As a form of "small A", quantile machine learning is used to forecast diurnal and nocturnal $Q(.90)$ air temperatures for Paris, France from late spring through the summer months of 2021. The data are provided by the Paris-Montsouris…

Parametric autoregressive moving average models with exogenous terms (ARMAX) have been widely used in the literature. Usually, these models consider a conditional mean or median dynamics, which limits the analysis. In this paper, we…